2020 already doesn’t seem all that easy. Iran-Iraq-US conflict is one of the biggest pieces of news for now and we are only 8 days into the year. What will happen next? Well, let’s hope that all of the changes that 2020 is going to bring are going to be much easier and much more pleasant.
What are the main events of 2020?
1. Brexit.
2. US Presidential elections.
3. Trade deal.
4. Central Banks change policies.
1. Brexit.
We start with one of the most important changes mainly because it is going to happen so soon – in the end of January. British withdrawal from the EU has been on our mind for a long time and it is long overdue to happen. Surely, it is going to call for a long adjustment period for both sides of the divorce process with GB expected to take most of the hits both economically and socially.
Several big international companies have already relocated their HQs from London in search of a place that would further allow them to operate according to European laws. Surely, this is going to reflect on British economy in the long run. There is also no doubt that we are going to see more of this pretty soon.
It is still unclear whether Britain is going to agree to all the deal proposed by EU, but one thing is clear – changes are on their way for both of them.
2. US Presidential elections.
This year is also going to see elections in the USA. We hope, that this year Americans are going to elect someone other than Trump, especially given recent developments. Even though war in the Middle East is considered to be a booster for American Presidents for re-election. But whether it is going to help, we have to see.
There is also a matter of impeachment. With House of Representatives voting in favor of the process, there is virtually no chance that Republican-controlled Senate is going to vote in favor of impeaching Trump. Republican party still thinks that Trump did nothing wrong and that Ukrainian scandal is nothing but an elaborate hoax. But, even in case Trump is impeached no one is going to restrict him from running for re-elections, especially given that he has already started his campaigning.
3. Trade deal.
Seems that with US-Iran-Iraq conflict we have forgotten everything about the main conflict of 2019 – trade war between China and USA. It almost makes you wonder whether it is connected somehow. Trade deal is still not signed and we are waiting for the signing to go through.
Why is it so important? Well, because while the world is focused on the Middle East crisis, Chinese and Asian economy keep on taking hits. Asian markets are slipping as they are still considered to be pretty dangerous for casual trading, especially given that traders are fleeing towards safe havens. And let’s face it – there is nothing further from safe havens than Chinese markets right now.
We need to remind ourselves about the trade deal and about the fact that it is still not signed. We mustn’t forget about it, otherwise this is going to be left hanging in there which is only going to further damage world trade balance.
4. Central Banks change policies.
There is a real fear that major central banks are going to change their monetary policies and make changes to their interest rates. World economy is getting worse and developed countries’ economies are stagnating. Only CB stimulation can somehow help us escape world economic crisis. Surely that is not going to bring more faith into the international economy, but at least we are going to see that something is done. Are you ready for the changes towards international policies that have the most influence? I sure am not. But it seems that it is going to happen anyway with most of the biggest economies failing to reach their goals of growth and expansion.
Chances for this alteration is pretty low, but we still have to keep this possibility in mind.
