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Jan

Stock and Bond Markets Fall as Swiss Let the Franc Rise

: investing news; LATEST NEWS; 15 January 2015

Global markets were thrown into turmoil on Thursday as a shock move by Switzerland to abandon its three-year cap on the franc sent the currency soaring and Europe's shares and bond yields tumbling.

The franc jumped by almost 30 percent in a chaotic few minutes that saw it break past parity against the euro to trade as high as 0.8052 francs per euro as it cast off the 1.20 per euro cap it has had in place since late 2011

The move shattered what up until then had been a rebound in risk appetite following an overnight recovery in commodity prices.

"This is extremely violent and totally unexpected, the central bank didn't prepare the market for it," said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in France.

"It's sparking panic across all asset classes. It suddenly revives the risk of central bank policy mistakes, right when central bank action is what's keeping equity markets going."

The view was that the Swiss central bank felt it could no longer hold out against the tide of money that is coming its way as the ECB in Frankfurt prepares to start quantitative easing and investors pour out of riskier markets like Russia.

Oil has also resumed its slide despite a bounce by copper and other metals putting gold and the yen back in favor.

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Jan

UK Inflation Rate Drops to Lowest in Almost 15 Years

: investing news; LATEST NEWS; 13 January 2015

Britain’s inflation rate fell to the lowest in almost 15 years in December, which will force Governor Mark Carney to write the Bank of England’s first open letter explaining why prices are rising too slowly.

Consumer-price growth weakened to 0.5 percent from 1 percent in November, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. That’s the lowest since May 2000 and below the 0.7 percent median forecast of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A separate report showed factory-gate prices recorded their biggest annual drop in five years.

Plunging oil costs and supermarket price wars are driving the sharp slowdown in UK inflation. With price growth below the Bank of England’s 2 percent target and a weak euro-area economy damping export demand, that’s helping Carney and his majority on the Monetary Policy Committee justify keeping the key interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.

The consumer-price data showed that food prices plunged 1.9 percent in December from a year earlier amid price cuts by supermarket chains including Tesco Plc and Wal Mart Stores Inc.- owned Asda to fend off competition from discounters. Reflecting the drop in crude oil, the price of gasoline has fallen about 18 percent from its 2012 peak, according to the statistics office.

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Jan

European Shares, Dollar Dip Ahead of Payrolls

: investing news; LATEST NEWS; 09 January 2015

More weak data from Europe ensured shares worldwide were set to end their first full week of 2015 in the red on Friday, while both the dollar and oil prices dipped as investors waited for monthly US jobs data.

Friday's jobs report is expected to show that non-farm payrolls increased by 240,000 in December. That would mark the 11th consecutive month of job gains above 200,000, the longest stretch since 1994.

A deluge of US data this week has already bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade around the middle of the year and has sent the dollar .DXY soaring to a nine-year high.

"At the moment the US is the only party on the street," said Kully Samra at Charles Schwab in London. "Where else are you going to go for growth."

Europe though continues to paint a much bleaker picture. German exports fell sharply and industrial output declined in November new figures showed. Industrial production also fell in France and Spain's reading was revised down.

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Jan

Find Out Why Oil Drops Below 50 Per Barrel

: investing news; LATEST NEWS; 06 January 2015

Oil extended losses below $50 a barrel amid speculation that US crude inventories will expand, exacerbating a global supply glut that’s driven prices to the lowest level since April 2009.

Futures fell as much as 3.1 percent in New York, declining for a fourth day. Stockpiles in the world’s biggest oil consumer probably rose by 750,000 barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey shows. A gauge of the dollar held near a nine-year high, diminishing the investment appeal of commodities, as the Federal Reserve weighs raising interest rates and amid concern that Greece will leave the European Union.

Oil slumped almost 50 percent in 2014, the most since the 2008 financial crisis, after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted calls to cut output as they compete with US producers. The market faces “more problems” this year, according to Morgan Stanley, with surging output in Russia and Iraq contributing to a surplus that Qatar estimates at 2 million barrels a day.

“The market is obsessed with the supply side,” Hans van Cleef, energy economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam, said by phone. “Prices have dropped too fast and too far, but with the market this negative it’s hard to see a trigger which could turn the sentiment. If U.S. inventories are higher than expected, we could see Brent below $50 this week.”

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Dec

Oil Sinks Further, With Prices Down 50% Since June

: investing news; LATEST NEWS; 30 December 2014

Crude-oil futures dropped further Tuesday to fresh five-year lows on oversupply concerns ahead of the release of weekly US oil inventory data.

Brent crude settled at its lowest since May 15, 2009 in overnight floor trade.

The new low sets back the clock on establishing a more durable support for prices and the market still faces a surplus in the first-half of 2015 of 1.5 million barrels a day, analyst Tim Evans at Citi Futures said.

“Given the size of this projected overhang, we can expect the market to reject minor bullish fundamental surprises as too small to support a sustained price recovery, just as Monday’s price action suggests,” he said.

Later Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to publish its weekly US oil inventory data. The more closely watched data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday and Citi Futures expects a decline of 1-2 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 26.

Oil inventories typically decline at this time of the year due to strong winter demand, and any surprise build in stockpiles due to high production levels will push oil prices even lower, traders say.

But the speed at which spending cuts translate into lower oil production will take several months and is likely to be a gradual process.

Oil prices have been falling due to stagnating demand in Asia and Europe but also largely due to the US shale boom that has offset supply disruptions in other parts of the world.

“For now, we see US crude-oil production as still contributing to the declining call on OPEC crude oil and the wider global supply-demand surplus,” Evans said in a report.

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Dec

Ruble Set for Best Week in 16 Years as Russia Turns to Exporters

: investing news; LATEST NEWS; 26 December 2014

The ruble fell, trimming a weekly rally that drove the currency up the most since in 16 years as the government ordered Russian exporters to reduce their foreign-currency holdings to shore up confidence.

The ruble weakened 0.2 percent to 52.6600 a dollar by 12:28 p.m. in Moscow, bringing its advance in the past five days to 11 percent, the first weekly increase since the period ended Nov. 23. Government bonds gained, pushing the five-year yield lower for the first time in four days. The Micex Index (INDEXCF) of equities rose for a third day led by OAO Magnit, the nation’s biggest retailer, and natural gas producer OAO Gazprom.

Coordinated measures by Russia’s government and central bank have succeeded in driving a 52 percent rebound in the ruble since it slid to a record-low 80.10 on Dec. 16. Gazprom and four other state-controlled exporters were ordered this week to cut their foreign-currency holdings by March 1 to levels no higher than they were on Oct. 1, while the central bank sought to make it easier for banks to access dollars and euros.

“Exporters have to sell, and while volumes aren’t that large, it’s enough to move this thin market,” Iskander Abdullaev, analyst at Sberbank CIB, said in e-mailed comments. “I think there was an instruction to calm down the rate until the end of the year, so that retail clients don’t panic before holidays, and take off pressure from the ruble.”

Russian markets will close for an annual New Year’s holiday from Dec. 31 through Jan. 4 and for a Christmas holiday on Jan. 7. Average trading volume in the ruble for the first four days of the week was almost 30 percent below the 12-month average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.