Trading Strategy

05

Jul

With all the markets unceratinty there are still good areas. 

04

Jul

There is very bad news coming form the USA today.

03

Jul

USA and EU relations are in hot water again.

02

Jul

Foregone elections in Mexico gave us both hope and scare.

29

Jun

With dollar moved away from the spotlight, the center of attention is instantly occupied by euro. 

Yesterday the date was announced – July 16. This is the day that the Russian and American leaders are going to hold an official meeting in Helsinki. This is going to be the first official meeting of the two leaders outside of any forums or political gatherings. And we know Trump’s love towards Russia. Never once during his presidency he uttered a negative word about Putin or his international policies. Of course, we can always plead the fact that the new sanctions are being forced upon Russia almost every month but Trump’s behavior in the G-7 forum was more than questionable. His desire to communicate with Russia has raised a lot of eyebrows on the modern world where Russian behavior is judged.

Putin’s desire is pretty clear – Russian economy has a lost a lot since 2014, when Russian annexation of Crimea and meddling in Syrian war plunged it into the spiral of sanctions. Ruble lost almost twice it was worth. It is now also tightly connected with oil prices which have been growing, but every new American step can erase all of the gains, that Russia made due to oil. So, it is clear that Putin wants to make a deal with Trump. The details are, of course, unknown, but we assume that it will be connected with ruble strength and oil prices. It is also likely that Putin will ask Trump to stop getting into Ukraine and Syrian deals, which, we fear, Trump can oblige.

What does that mean for the rest of the world? The main concern of the society is that no one needs strong Russia. It is both dangerous and violent, as practice shows. But strong and growing ruble is something which will bring a lot of good to traders around the world. As there are no other economies which would be tied to ruble exchange rate the influence would be minimal, but traders would find one more asset to invest and trade in. and in the world of trade war threat that is something that we really need.

At any rate meeting will only take place in three weeks and a lot can change before that. Of course, ruble is not the asset everyone dreams to work with but again, another strong asset wouldn’t be too bad. We have a feeling that Putin will talk his way towards some of the simplifying the situation for himself, for Russian economy and ruble. But the real question is whether there will be victims of such growth?

Have you seen the gains euro has made as the end of the trading week approached? Of course, you have! We all were in awe to see the united European currency grow by 0.5 percent compared to dollar. And there is a good reason behind such confidence of the currency that we hope, will go on through to the next week.

Newly-appointed Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has taken part in his first European summit. And the topic for is was more than important for the whole of Europe – migration flow. Tens of thousands of immigrants from the West have flooded EU. And since than it became a big problem for euro as well. It has been twisted and turned between those who wanted to rum immigrants out of the EU and back to their war-devastated countries and those who wanted to give them jobs. And homes. And practically all of the responsibility was falling on the shoulders of the strongest economies of the region – Germany and France. But they are sock of all of the fingers pointing at them.

Pressure on Germany means pressure on euro. That is a set equation. Not even on Germany. On Merkel. And the pressure on her career has been immense in the last several weeks. Euro has been anticipating the meeting very hard. And we can see that with today’s growth. 0.5 percent is a big gain for the currency and it is all due to the agreement reached by the European leaders. They agreed on increasing border security throughout the whole region and euro immediately gels more secure. Can you imagine what will happen if Merkel will find support in fellow Bremen politicians on Sunday?

If everything goes according to German plan we will be able to see euro go through the roof on Monday. After weeks of strong dollar, the greenback is finally letting go of the world’s attention and all of it has got to go somewhere. The most beautiful thing about the whole situation is that all of the currencies love to be in the spotlight. And the brighter it is the better. And there is no denying that with the whole immigrants talks euro is definitely in the center of attention right now.

With more and more news emerging on the matter we have the perfect possibility to see weak spots of euro and draw our own conclusions about the future behavior of the currency.