Trading Strategy

During the early trading session, Asian stocks traded lower following weak U.S. data and poor earnings reports from the Japanese first quarter end. Yesterday U.S. reports showed that the GDP for the first quarter grew at a slower rate than expected. Furthermore, Japans Honda Motor company led losses as the Earnings Per share were 22% lower than forecast. Japan’s company shares also fell as the outlook over the country’s stimulus program; board members stated that “from the long-term perspective there is no need to ease policy further”. The NZD/USD dropped sharply following the RBNZ Rate Statement, Reserve Bank officials indicated that an interest rate cut was possible if demand and wages drop lower “than is consistent with the inflation target”.

During the European session, the Euro rose against the Dollar following data from Germany and from the Eurozone. Despite a report showing that Germany’s unemployment change dropped 8000 instead of the expected figure of -13k, positive data showed that the CPI for the Eurozone remained unchanged, analysts had expected that the price of goods and services to drop by 0.1%. Later in the session, the Dollar rallied against the Yen as Currency traders digested comments from the BoJ Press Conference; the Bank cut its forecasts for economic growth and inflation for 2015 and 2016.

Traders are now awaiting a number of important economic reports taking place tomorrow, including, the Manufacturing PMI for China, UK and the U.S.

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Just as there are many investment styles on the fundamental side, there are also many different types of technical traders. Some rely on chart patterns; others use technical indicators and oscillators, and most use some combination of the two. In any case, technical analysts' exclusive use of historical price and volume data is what separates them from their fundamental counterparts. Unlike fundamental analysts, technical analysts don't care whether a stock is undervalued - the only thing that matters is a security's past trading data and what information this data can provide about where the security might move in the future.

The field of technical analysis is based on three assumptions:

1. The Market Discounts Everything

A major criticism of technical analysis is that it only considers price movement, ignoring the fundamental factors of the company. However, technical analysis assumes that, at any given time, a stock's price reflects everything that has or could affect the company - including fundamental factors. Technical analysts believe that the company's fundamentals, along with broader economic factors and market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the need to actually consider these factors separately. This only leaves the analysis of price movement, which technical theory views as a product of the supply and demand for a particular stock in the market.

2. Price Moves in Trends

In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trends. This means that after a trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as the trend than to be against it. Most technical trading strategies are based on this assumption.

3. History Tends To Repeat Itself

Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price movement. The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market psychology; in other words, market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time. Technical analysis uses chart patterns to analyze market movements and understand trends. Although many of these charts have been used for more than 100 years, they are still believed to be relevant because they illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves.

Not Just Stocks

Technical analysis can be used on any security with historical trading data. This includes stocks, futures and commodities, fixed-income securities, forex, etc. In this tutorial, we'll usually analyze stocks in our examples, but keep in mind that these concepts can be applied to any type of security. In fact, technical analysis is more frequently associated with commodities and forex, where the participants are predominantly traders.

Now that you understand the philosophy behind technical analysis, we'll get into explaining how it really works. One of the best ways to understand what technical analysis is (and is not) is to compare it to fundamental analysis. We'll do this in the next section.

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What is it? It checks the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

When? April 30^th at 9:30pm Eastern Time.

Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.

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What is it? It checks the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

When? April 30^th at 9:00pm Eastern Time.

Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CNY to rise.

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What is it? Governor Poloz is due to testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, before the Senate Finance Committee, in Ottawa.

As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

When? April 30^th at 10:30am Eastern Time.

Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the CAD to rise.

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What is it? It checks the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.

When? April 30^th at 8:30am Eastern Time.

Trading Tip: If the actual number is lower than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.

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