Trading Strategy

03

Apr

As in every first Friday of the month, today there's the NFP announcement.

What is it? It checks the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

When? Aptil 3rd at 8:30am Eastern Time.

Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.

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North Dakota will from Wednesday require the more-than 1.2 million barrels of crude extracted each day from the state's Bakken shale formation be run through machines that remove volatile gases linked to recent crude-by-rail disasters.

The controversial step is designed to abrogate the damage North Dakota crude oil - 70 percent of which is transported via rail - can cause during derailments.

In the absence of concrete regulations from the U.S. Department of Transportation, North Dakota's new rules become the de facto national standard on the treatment of crude before tankcar loading.

"North Dakota's crude oil conditioning order is based on sound science and represents an important step in the ongoing work to ensure that oil-by-rail transportation is as safe as possible," said Governor Jack Dalrymple, who has also been pushing federal regulators for stricter rail car designs.

The new regulations require every single barrel of North Dakota crude to be filtered for ethane, propane and other natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are found naturally co-mingled with oil.

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Tesla Motors shares jumped on Monday after Elon Musk tweeted that the company would unveil a "major" new product line next month, leaving analysts guessing.

Shares in the electric car star rallied three percent to $190.97 on the news.

Musk was intentionally vague.

"Major new Tesla product line — not a car — will be unveiled at our Hawthorne Design Studio on Thurs 8pm, April 30," he tweeted.

Some reports said Musk was likely referring to a home battery based on a design used in the Tesla vehicles, about which he spoke during a February earnings call.

"We're going to unveil some of the Tesla home battery or consumer battery that will be for use in people's houses or businesses, fairly soon," he said at the time.

"We have the design done, and it should start going into production probably in about six months or so."

The South African-born Musk made his first millions in the 1990s with a payments company that eventually merged with PayPal. He later created SpaceX, a private group working on rockets and space exploration, and Tesla, with the aim of popularizing electric vehicles.

While Tesla produces relatively few vehicles, it has become a star in the sector due to keen demand and a reputation for high quality.

Look for their stock in the recent days to see if it suddenly jumps.

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A new report from the National Association for Business Economics points to improved prospects in the U.S. employment market, a lower inflation rate, and additional consumer spending growth in the 2015 calendar year, as compared to the organization’s December 2014 report.

“Healthier consumer spending, housing investment and government spending growth are expected to make outsized contributions to the projected acceleration in overall economic activity. Accordingly, recent labor market strength is expected to continue,” said NABE president John Silvia, who is also Wells Fargo’s chief economist.  The group also cited a few other variables behind March’s improved prospects, such as a stronger greenback, low oil prices, and improvements in the housing space.

Crude oil prices, which went down from $98 per barrel in December 2013 to $59 in December 2014, are forecasted to average $61 by the end of 2015 and $69 by the end of next year.  This is in contrast to December’s report, which had a forecasted oil price of $85 per barrel by December 2015.  There were, however, some potential headwinds pointed out in NABE’s March report.

The headwinds, according to the business economics group, include a larger U.S. trade deficit this year, reduced corporate profit growth forecasts for calendar 2015, and lower hourly compensation as compared to the December report.  Regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s inevitable raising of interest rates from near-zero levels, 88 percent of NABE’s prognosticators said that the Fed may start hiking rates in the June or September 2015 quarter.

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Google Inc said it would pay its new Chief Financial Officer, Ruth Porat, more than $70 million in the next two years through a combination of restricted stock units and a biennial grant.

The company hired Morgan Stanley CFO Porat as its finance chief earlier this week, a sign it is aiming to rein in costs as it invests in new businesses such as self-driving cars and Internet-connected eyeglasses.

Porat's compensation package includes a grant of $25 million through restricted stock units, a $40 million biennial grant in 2016 and a special one-time $5 million sign-on bonus, Google said in a regulatory filing on Thursday.

Porat, who will join Google on May 26, will also get an annual base salary of $650,000. She earned a base salary of $1 million at Morgan Stanley for 2013, according to the bank's proxy filing. Her pay last year will be disclosed once the bank files its latest proxy.

Porat is the latest among a string of Wall Street executives to leave an industry that is increasingly regulated to move into the more free-wheeling technology sector, where fortunes can be built fast but businesses can also become irrelevant overnight.

Google paid its outgoing CFO Patrick Pichette, who announced his retirement earlier this month, $62.2 million for the three years through 2013, more than twice the $29.6 million Porat earned at Morgan Stanley, according to regulatory filings.

Mountain View, California-based Google said it would stop annual cash bonuses for senior vice presidents from next year and shift to a system that includes annual base salary and biennial equity grants.

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Lifting oil sanctions on Iran will likely hit global markets long before the nation starts pumping more crude.

That's because the member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel has been stockpiling oil onshore and in supertankers in the Persian Gulf, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While estimates of the hoard by ship brokers and government officials vary from as little as 7 million barrels to as much as 35 million, Barclays Plc and Societe Generale SA predict this crude would be the first to be sold abroad if there's an agreement on Iran's nuclear program.

The U.S. and five other world powers are scheduled to resume talks with Iran this week, offering relief from sanctions on oil exports, shipping and financial transactions if the Islamic Republic curtails its nuclear program and allows inspections to verify compliance. If a deal is reached, the Gulf nation could add its stockpiles into an oversupplied oil market where prices have fallen more than 50 percent since June.

"The first wave to look out for when these sanctions are removed is that stored oil coming back into the market," Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays in London, said by email. "Their ability to sell from storage will depend on whether shipping and insurance restrictions are also lifted."

It would take three to six months after an end-of-June deadline on a final agreement for the Iranian oil to reach the market, according to U.S. government officials who asked not to be identified. The discussions this week are aimed at agreeing on a framework for the accord by the end of this month.

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