Ronny's Review - 02/11
- Donald Herison
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China's very important factory sector slowed for a third straight month in October, according to an official survey.
The government's purchasing managers' index hit 49.8 in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, unchanged from the previous month. Any number below 50 represents a deceleration in the manufacturing sector.
A separate survey conducted by Chinese media group Caixin showed manufacturing PMI at 48.3 in October, an improvement from 47.2 in September. The index has now been below 50 for eight consecutive months.
The official government manufacturing gauge is heavily weighted toward large enterprises, while the Caixin survey taps a smaller sample size and places greater emphasis on smaller firms.
The data underscore rising concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy. Beijing reported last month that gross domestic product slid to 6.9% in the third quarter, the slowest pace since the financial crisis.
The factory sector, however, showed initial signs of stabilization. The Caixin survey showed that output and new orders picked up during October, and foreign demand appeared to be recovering.
"The PMIs are consistent with the view that conditions, although still subdued, are starting to show signs of improvement," said Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics.
Looking ahead, many economists expect Beijing to take further stimulus measures before the end of the year.
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October was the best month for Stocks in the last 4 years. The good momentum may continue to November.
U.S. stock futures are climbing back up from earlier lows. The S&P 500 is getting closer to an all-time high.
Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1. Hot Turkey
Turkey's main Istanbul index is surging around 5% after the ruling AKP party won a surprise outright majority in parliamentary elections. The lira is also jumping versus the U.S. dollar.
"A period of prolonged political uncertainty has come to an end, hence the strong rally of the Turkish lira," explained Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro.
Still, Turkey's economy remains vulnerable to any rise in U.S. interest rates because of its yawning current account deficit and some analysts say the gains may be short-lived.
2. Stocks to watch
Chipotle, HSBC: Chipotle (CMG) is in the spotlight Monday after the company temporarily closed dozens of restaurants in Washington and Oregon after an E.coli scare. Shares in the restaurant chain have dropped by about 15% since mid-October.
Shares in HSBC (HSBC) are dipping by around 1% in London as investors react to the bank's latest earnings results. Pre-tax profits in the third quarter rose 31% compared to the same period last year, but underlying revenues were down.
3. Earnings and economics
Visa (V), Estee Lauder (EL) and Clorox (CLX) are among the companies reporting ahead of the open.
Then Allstate (ALL), Avis Budget (CAR), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and Fitbit (FIT) will post earnings after the close.
On the economic side, the Institute for Supply Management will release its October manufacturing report at 10 a.m. ET.
4. International markets overview
European markets are not making any major moves in early trading, but there's a positive atmosphere in the markets.
Asian stock markets mostly ended with losses.
This comes as official data shows China's factory sector slowed for a third straight month in October.
China's Premier Li Keqiang also set a new medium term target for growth, saying the world's second biggest economy will need to expand by at least 6.5% per year over the next five years, according to state media. The Chinese government had been targeting 7% growth this year.
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What is it? It's among the primary tools the RBA Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.
When? At 10:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.
When? At 10:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
When? At 10:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
When? At 4:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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1. U.S. stocks were little changed on Friday as investors paused on the last trading day of what could be the best month for the three major indexes in four years.
Energy majors Exxon and Chevron reported better-than- expected results, helped by strong refining margins. Exxon (N:XOM) shares were down 1 percent, while Chevron (N:CVX) rose 1.9 percent.
2. U.S. consumer spending in September recorded its smallest gain in eight months as personal income barely rose, suggesting some cooling in domestic demand after recent hefty increases.
The Commerce Department data and another report from the Labor Department on Friday also showed weak inflationary pressures, which would argue against the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of the year.
3. The U.S. dollar held steady against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after a report showed that Canada's economy grew in line with expectations in August, while weak data from the U.S. dampened demand for the greenback.
USD/CAD hit 1.3193 during early U.S. trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3165.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3085, the low of October 28 and resistance at 1.3280, the high of October 28.
4. Chevron Corp (N:CVX), the second-largest U.S.-based oil producer, slashed its 2016 capital budget by 25 percent and said it would lay off roughly 10 percent of its workforce, one of the most-drastic reactions to date to the plunge in crude prices (CLc1).
The price drop has forced Chevron and dozens of its peers to make tough decisions about what projects to fund or not fund in order to offset natural declines at its existing fields.
The choices are that much starker at large international oil giants like Chevron that rely heavily on their massive budgets to fund exploration projects crucial to finding new energy sources.
5. World shares rose on Friday and were on course for their best month in four years, as global central banks kept stimulus policies intact and many hinted at further steps to re-energize their economies.
That has helped soothe concern over higher borrowing costs in the United States as the Federal Reserve prepares to tighten rates, possibly by the end of the year.
The dollar slipped for a second day, notably against the yen after the Bank of Japan left policy unchanged. Government bond yields also slipped back after two days of Fed-fueled increases.
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