21/ 1 / 2013 - January

Market Review By TraderXP

The euro is set to rise to its highest level against the dollar in more than a year after breaking of the so-called resistance, Credit Suisse AG said, citing trading patterns.
Violation of $ 1.3309 resistance zone opens an advance for a common currency by 50 percent Fibonacci level of $ 1.3493 and eventually to $ 1.40, Credit Suisse analysts including Christopher Hein wrote in a note today, the level last touched in October 2011. He is currently continuing through the completion of a long-term invertedhead and shoulders reversal pattern in December, they wrote.


"Only sustained breakdown to $ 1.2998 neutralizes the threat up, while the breaking of $ 1.2662 bearish tone needed to get out," says Hein, vice president of technical analysis for Credit Suisse in London.


Market News

Global stocks, oil prices rebound on U.S. budget talks
Peace and justice in oil prices jumped on Friday after the Republican leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives said they would try to break the budget impasse in the next week, while the yen hit a 31-month low against the U.S. dollar, ahead of potential purchases assets of the Bank of Japan.
On Wall Street, the Dow and the S & P 500 postedfive-year high after the close of Republicans said the house will consider a bill to raise the U.S. debt ceiling enough to allow the country to pay its bills for another three months. Strategy to buy time for the Democratic-controlled Senate to pass a budget plan that reduces the federal budget deficit.
Nasdaq ended slightly lower, dragged down by a weak earnings forecast from Intel Corp, a leading chip maker in the world.
"This could be a big positive for the market, if we are faced with a plan to reduce costs, which is not too terribly hard on the economy," said Bryant Evans, investment adviser and portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management, in Champaign, Illinois.
Earlier shares were cracked after a survey that showed U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in a month since December 2011.
Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 71.3, up from 72.9 the previous month.
Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington, said that the number of consumer confidence will be closely scrutinized going forward, given the still uncertain impact of higher payroll taxes for American consumers.
"This is a big mistake, and may be the beginning of the downward trend in sentiment and spending," Esiner said.
Intel shares fell 6.3 percent to $ 21.25 a day after the company forecast a quarterly profit below analysts' estimates and announced plans to increase capital spending amid slow demand for personal computers.
Index Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 53.68 points, or 0.39 percent, to 13,649.70. 500 Index Standard & Poor rose 5.04 points, or 0.34 percent, to 1,485.98. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.30 points, or 0.04 percent, to 3,134.71.
For the week Dow gained 1.2 percent, S & P 0,9 percent, Nasdaq up 0.3 percent.
Worries about the economy undermined optimism upbeat housing data in the U.S. earlier this week, the revival of some asylum applications for government debt.
Test U.S. 10-year Treasury note ticked up12/32 in price to yield 1.8416 percent.
Disappointing UK economic data helped pushed European shares down. FTSEurofirst 300 index of top shares closed 0.16 percent lower at 1,163.64.
China reported that its economy grew by slightlyfaster, than-expected 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, a clear sign that it was possible to avoid a sharp slowdown in economic growth, although the rate of growth was the weakest in 13 years.
China data, and then a strong U.S. labor and housing market reports on Thursday, providing a new impetus for a broad rally in stocks, precious metals and commodities, with the start of the year.
All countries in the MSCI world equity index reached its highest level since May 2011 351.90, which is 0.25 percent.
Spot gold retreated $ 2.87 to $ 1,684.30 per troy ounce.
Oil supply disruption fears were reinforced theIslamic militant attacks and hostage-taking in a gas processing plant in Algeria, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The lack of progress on the next round of talks between the United Nations' nuclear agency and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program, also pushed prices higher.
Brent rose 79 cents to settle at $ 111.89 a barrel, while U.S. oil settled 7 cents higher at $ 95.56 a barrel.
Yen lost ground against the dollar on expectations of aggressive policy actions of the Bank of Japan.
Sources familiar with the thinking of the Bank of Japan told Reuters the central bank, under the relentless pressure of the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will consider making public commitments to purchase assets to 2 percent inflation in sight.
"This is a big deal," said Jens Nordvig, global head of currency strategy at Nomura Securities in New York. "But, as always with the trade point of view, it is of great importance to the fact that already in the price."
The euro last trade 0.22 percent lower against the yen at 119.89 yen compared with 120.70 earlier, the highest level since May 2011.
The euro also fell against the dollar, falling0.43 percent to $ 1.3317. Reuters.com


Currencies

Yen drops sharply to 31-month low on the expected action by the Bank of Japan
The yen fell to 31-month low against the dollar on Friday, sliding on the 10th straight week on expectations of aggressive monetary policy actions by the Bank of Japan.
Investors, however, decided to book profits in the euro against the yen, although the currency shared by 17 counties totaled 0,6 percenthigher this week and 4.8 percent stronger, until in 2013. The euro also fell against the dollar after steep gains in the previous session.
The dollar was 3.8 percent against the yen this year, and most strategists believe that the U.S. currency is ready to continue appreciating, if the Bank of Japan at the beginning of next week takes action - for market expectations - to stop the deflationary spiral.
"The expectations of the almost universal to go from 1 percent to 2 percent inflation, including the converted (asset purchase) measures," said Dan Dorrow, head of research at FX broker Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut.
"Prime Minister (Shinzo) Abe and the political class in general have a very urgent need to push the Bank of Japan to change the regime and keep it there. Political pressure on the Bank of Japan will not fall."
Sources familiar with the thinking of the Bank of Japan told Reuters the central bank would consider making public commitments to purchase assets to 2 percent inflation rate will be achieved.
Such a plan will exceed the expectations of the market, analysts said.
The dollar reached a peak of 90.18 yen, the highest level since June 2010. This is the last traded up 0.2 percent at 90.08 yen. On the week, the dollar rose 0.9 percent against the yen.
Intraday bias remains on the upside, analysts TraderXP.com said, with the current rally saw extends to 94.98 resistance level.
On the other hand, the gap 87.77 yen support, a low blow to the environment, it is necessary to signal a short-term top. Reported options barrier at 90.75 yen could also act as an immediate resistance.
Traders reported strong demand for a bid to further weakening of the yen, the one-month dollar / yen implied volatility - a measure of expected price movements - to rise to the highest level since August 2011.
One-month risk reversals showed a buying yen way, or bets on falling yen also rose.
Kathy Lien, Managing Director of BC Asset Management in New York, said that the Bank of Japan may disappoint investors next week, whichcould cause OT rebound in the yen.
"Shift 2 percent inflation target has been reduced in the market, and we expect the Bank of Japan to agree, but what the market wants to see is a plan of action, and we are not sure if the Governor of the Bank of Japan will go so far when there are only three months left in his term, "said Lien.
CHINA DATA weighs on risk assets
Concerns about global economic growth weighed on risk appetite after China reported a slowdown in 2012. Currency correlates with the growth of the world economy, such as the Australian and Canadian dollars, fell to the data.
The Australian dollar slid 0.4 percent against the dollar to $ 1.0507. The Canadian dollar also fell, pushing the U.S. dollar by 0.6 percent to C $ 0.9915.
-Haven dollar can still get riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar over the next month, as U.S. politicians to discuss how to improve the country's borrowing limit, or debt ceiling.
Concerns about the debt ceiling weighed on consumer confidence in the U.S. in January, which on Friday showed a decline for the second consecutive month to the lowest level in more than a year.
Riskier assets received a delay in the afternoon. The House Republican leaders said they will try to pass a three-month extension of the powers of the federal government borrowing in the next week to give time for the Senate to pass a budget plan that reduces the country's budget deficit.
Economic situation in the euro zone, meanwhile, remains grim and the data from the region should continue to show weakness, the ECB may decide to cut rates in the coming months, a negative for the euro.
The euro last trade 0.2 percent lower against the yen at 119.95 yen compared with 120.70 hit earlier - the highest level since May 2011.
Earlier, the euro rose to a 20-month high against the Swiss franc at 1.2568 francs, analysts had expected the Swiss currency remains weak. This last changed hands at 1.2443 francs, up 0.2 percent.
Against the dollar, the euro retreated from $ 1.3401, just shy of the 11-month high of $ 1.3403 set on Monday. This is the last trading at $ 1.3316, up 0.4 percent. On the week, the euro slipped 0.3 percent against the dollar. Reuters.com

 

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