12/01/2015 - January Daily Review

NFP data was released on Friday and showed that 252,000 people were hired during the past month. This was very positive and was much higher than the expected increase of 240,000. However, average hourly earnings data was also released and disappointed as it showed a decline of 0.2%. The data offset expectations that interest rates could be raised sooner than expected as wage inflation is another important aspect of the market.

US markets declined following the release. Falling oil prices also hit sentiment.

Asian markets were mixed across the region. The Nikkei remained closed for a public holiday known as ‘Adults Day’. The Hang Seng added 0.45% as two components soared on news of reorganization plans.

European markets are mixed today. Oil prices initially boosted markets as companies reported that they will have stronger earnings due to weaker fuel prices. Markets were also boosted by a report from CNBC which stated that quantitative easing could be based on contributions made by central banks. Gains were short lived, however, as oil extended its sell off.

Oil is trading at its lowest price since March 2009. Goldman Sachs cut their 2015 forecast to $47.15 as they believe the market needs to balance itself out.  The Prince of Saudi, Alwaleed, is also reported to have said that oil will never reach $100/barrel if supply and demand remains at the current level. Trader should focus on this week’s supply data as it may dictate the direction of the market.

Gold gained on the back of wage data. As the data made an interest rate hike seems less likely and the stock market declined, the metal was boosted as it offers more lucrative returns. As the Dollar remains strong we could see limited gains, however, so traders should be careful with any long term ‘Call’ positions.

 

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