REVIEW
The ECB left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. This decision was widely anticipated. Improvment PMI indicators of the dynamics in most EU countries affected. The regulator does not see deterrioration situation in the region, and that was a condition of easing monetary policy. Interestingly, the information from the ECB was on the news on the continuation of unemployment in France. This figure reached 10.8% already. This is the highest number since 1998. Nevertheless, the ECB forecast for the EU economy has become more pessimistic. If earlier it was expected that the results of the annual EU GDP going to fall by half a percent, now the number will be revised down to -0.6%. The data for the second quarter look pretty bad. Retail is reduced by 3 months. In addition, according to information published on Thursday, the number of German manufacturing orders fell by 2.3%. Nevertheless Draghi forward to the recovery in the second half of the year. Draghi made an interesting comment on the discussion of a wide range of measures to stimulate the economy, which is beyond the control of interest rates. Among other measures, there is a correction of deposit rates to negative values, and loans of the banking sector by the ECB. This is an attempt to somehow revive lending to small and medium-sized businesses. Anyway Draghi concluded that in the meantime, the ECB sees no reason for too active steps in these directions. European inflation at 1.4%. This is less than the number of ECB target of 2%. But the head of the ECB is not associated with the threat of deflation, and suggests that the current situation may give some support to the consumer sector. In his view, low inflation is one of the three main pillars of the European economic recovery, along with two others: the growth of exports and adaptive ECB policy. To rounding, there NFP report published today. As is usually assumed to affect the markets a lot, so it is strongly recommended to keep an eye on it.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
EURUSD
Euro breaks above resistance at 1.3242. It involves the resumption of uptrend from 1.2747. The next target on the upside is 1.3400. A further increase is possible after some consolidation. Supports up to bias the trend. If it holds, the bullish trend is likely to continue.
USDJPY
Reducing couples' passes in price from 95.92. The next downside target at 95.00 area. Resistance coincides with an oblique downward trend line. Only a strong break above it will suggest the end of the bearish trend.
GBPUSD
Pound overcomes resistance around 1.5605. Further improvement is expected with the immediate goal of 1.5800. Support for the upward trend line. A break below this level will signal the end of an uptrend.
Economic Calendar
8:30 GBP Trade Balance
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM)
12:00 BRL Brazilian CPI (YoY)
12:30 CAD Employment Change
12:30 CAD productivity (QoQ)
12:30 CAD Unemployment
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
12:30 USD Average Workweek
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls
12:30 USD creation in the private sector Nonfarm
12:30 USD Unemployment
13:00 MXN Mexican CPI (YoY)
14:00 MXN Mexican interest rate decision
