Markets await jobs report, G20 summit kicks off in Germany.
Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1. NFP report in the spotlight
This Friday all eyes will be on the publication of the June jobs report which is expected to continue to show a strong U.S. labor market.
The U.S. Labor Department will release its June nonfarm payrolls report (NFP) at 12:30 GMT on Friday.
The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 180,000 this month, following an increase of 138,000 in May, the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% after gaining 0.2% a month earlier.
Investors will pay particular attention to the strength of the report in order to evaluate the impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current plans to move forward with the removal of accommodative monetary policy.
2. G-20 summit kicks off
Leaders gathered in Hamburg, Germany on Friday for the two-day G-20 summit where leaders are expected to cover topics such trade, climate change, and international security.
All eyes are on U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as they hold their first face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of the summit.
Trump took advantage of a speech in Warsaw on Thursday to urge Russia to “cease its destabilizing activities in Ukraine and elsewhere, and its support for hostile regimes including Syria and Iran.”
He added that Moscow should “join the community of responsible nations in our fight against common enemies and in defense of civilization itself.”
3. Global stocks on waiting mode
U.S. stock futures pointed to a flat open on Wall Street as market players were cautious ahead of the employment data.
European stocks drifted lower on Friday amid concerns over tighter monetary policy in Europe and as geopolitical tensions continued to weigh. Despite caution ahead of the U.S. jobs report, equities on the Old Continent were on track to close flat on the week.
Earlier, Asian stocks were mostly lower on Friday after a weak session on Wall Street, though China’s Shanghai Composite managed to close with gains of 0.2%.
Elsewhere, Oil fell more than 2% on Friday as news of a rise in U.S. production added to earlier reports that OPEC output was also on the rise.
Despite an initially bullish response to a huge drop in U.S. crude oil inventories on Thursday, sentiment soured by a 1% rise in weekly U.S. oil production to 9.34 million barrels per day (bpd). Since mid-2016, that's an increase of more than 1%.
4. Central banks in action
Markets have recently been shifting bets that many central banks may have started down the path set out by the Fed in the removal of policy accommodation.
European bond prices initially remained under pressure on Friday, driving yields higher. The yield on the German bund hit a fresh 18-month high on Friday, while the yield on Italy’s own 10-year sovereign debt touched a 2-month high. Prices later began to recover and yields were pulling back in mid-morning European trade.
Thursday’s spike in European yields was on the back of minutes from the last meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) that suggested the monetary authority may drop language suggesting it could increase its asset buying program.
The Bank of England (BoE) will also be under the market’s magnifying glass on Friday amid speculation that high levels of inflation in the U.K. may force the British central bank to hike rates.
With BoE members divided on the next course of action, governor Mark Carney was scheduled to speak at the G-20.
A clear exception to the wave of less dovish sentiment that appears to washing over global monetary authorities, the Bank of Japan boosted its government bond-buying program on Friday, offering to purchase an unlimited amount of public debt in an effort to calm markets.
