Global markets are in a positive mode, investors and traders await today’s NFP report.
Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
Global markets are in a positive mode, investors and traders await today’s NFP report.
Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1. NFP jobs report on focus
The U.S. Labor Department will release its August nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report at 12:30 GMT on Friday.
The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 180,000 this month, following an increase of 209,000 in July, with the unemployment rate forecast to hold steady at 4.3%.
Most of the focus will likely be on average hourly earnings figures, which are expected to rise 0.2% after gaining 0.3% a month earlier and maintain a 2.5% rise year-on-year.
Despite the solid job market, wage inflation has lagged, making markets skeptical that the Federal Reserve will indeed to follow through with its forecast of one more rate hike this year.
While markets appear to have priced in the fact the Fed is expected to make an announcement regarding the start of winding down its balance sheet at the September 20 policy decision, Fed fund futures continue to put the odds of an increase in interest rates by the end of the year at only 39%.
2. Dollar edges higher
The dollar registered cautious gains on Friday as traders waited for a slew of economic data later in the session.
Apart from the monthly employment report, investors will focus on the publication of ISM manufacturing sector activity for August at 14:00 GMT Friday. Expectations are for a slight pick-up growth with the index inching up to 56.5 from the prior 56.3.
Also scheduled for release Friday are data including construction spending for July along with revisions to both IHS Markit’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for August and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for the same month.
3. Global stocks look up
U.S. futures saw moderate gains as traders awaited nonfarm payrolls and a string of other data to gauge the strength of the American economy.
Elsewhere, European bourses traded higher on the back of some positive news from French media company Vivendi and the resilient manufacturing data.
Earlier, Asian shares closed higher on Friday with regional manufacturing figures aiding sentiment and the market, though traders showed caution ahead of the U.S. employment report.
4. Harvey weighs on Oil prices
Oil prices fell on Friday in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, which has killed more than 40 people and brought record flooding to the oil heartland of Texas, paralyzing over a quarter of the U.S. refining industry.
Harvey, downgraded to a tropical storm and losing steam as it moved inland, shut at least 4.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity, according to company reports and Reuters estimates.
That sparked fears of a fuel shortage ahead of the Labor Day weekend and cut refinery demand for crude oil.