Two words describe the situation in the world – waiting and uncertainty.
Two words describe the situation in the world – waiting and uncertainty.
Pound may only recover in late autumn.
Yesterday we already talked about the perspectives that pound may face with his recovery due to the progressing Brexit talks and nearing end of the UK-EU marriage. But today we might have faced a more or less c3ertain timeline for the possible recovery of the British currency. It was announced that the talks on trade agreement between EU and UK post-Brexit are to find some sort of conclusion in mid-November. It is a long time for us traders to wait for stability.
It seems that pound health is in big trouble right now as it is now pretty clear to us that if the deadline on negotiations is pushed further and further it is hard for the officials to reach agreement that would be more appropriate for both sides, although each of them is looking for the decision that would be better for themselves and not the opponent. With this we may face a pound-euro war really soon.
Battle of the two currencies may come as Brexit nears us. The real collapse of the economies may come is the greenback founds its now lost power and strength. With dollar as strong as it was just two weeks ago euro and pound would be swallowed by the lack of attention that would surely be tied to growing dollar and losing oil [as it usually happens]. These thoughts come to us with yesterday’s claim by the official statement that the possibility of the no-trade-deal Brexit is possible now.
In case of a messy divorce between the United Kingdom and the European Union it is likely that one of the national currencies will take most of the hits. With major companies and banks leaving the UK we would say that pound is now under a bigger threat. European zone is looking for the new partners and has recently negotiated trade deal with Trump which indicates additional boosts to the economies of European countries. Plus, there will be no privileges left for the UK when it comes to trading inside the EU while, of course, all of the other countries will keep on enjoying it.
so the future isn’t looking so bright for pound right now. pound trading hasn’t been all that stable with growing dollar and now when we see that the negotiations are as turbulent as they are we understand the difficulties which traders will face in the nearest future. right now pound is one of the worst currencies in the world to long as we do not know what each new day can bring for May and Brexit campaign.
What happened to Turkish lira?
Lira has been the talk of the town just a week and a half ago. But we haven’t heard from Turkey as the country is quiet in waiting for some kind of resolution of American crisis that hit the country, but it seems that the longer the Turks are waiting, the worse is the situation. While the talks have seemingly seized for us, a slow but certain selloff of lira have been ongoing all these days and Turkish economy has been getting hits.
We haven’t noticed the influence of Turkey only because the problem was localized very quickly and emerging economies stopped taking as much damage as they did earlier, but that doesn’t mean that lira trading is out of the woods. We would say that with the silent pause that the both sides are taking right now there is more threat to lira than ever. Silence always comes before the storm and we fear that that is exactly the kind of calm we face right now.
If there is no conclusion to the problem, we will have to face a bigger sell off when traders will try and get rid of all the possible lira. And with Turkish national currency already devaluated by 40 percent this year that is a huge risk. Economic situation in the region was strained already and the country was slightly pushed, but plunged into the economic crisis at once. Erdogan may face more serious consequence is case there is no resolution to the problem. We all know the temperament of the Turkish people who are not used to enduring bad leaders. Acting in revolutionary ways in order to fix the situation is the only was the Turks can influence the situation. And one more revolution will only worsen the situation.
Right now it is a tight position that we ourselves into. On one hand holding onto lira is a bad idea, seeing the devaluation, on the other had selloff is not a good way to resolving the situation. The only way out of this for us is to sell lira we have on our hands gradually with no rush.
Will Facebook recover?
Shares of the biggest social network in the world haven’t been facing the best of times. Falling almost beyond $170 per share point didn’t really promote Facebook’s popularity with traders. and right now there is still no growth to shares. Of course, there was a period of recovery for them, but for the last several days the fall is in the action. We can only think that the fall is due to the newly emerged scandal around the social network.
It seems that Facebook blocked hundreds of accounts that were allegedly linked to the new disinformation campaign of Russian forces, linked to the future American elections which are to take place this autumn. In its turn Russians denied every possibility of such a scandal and predictably sold off a part of the shares which resulted in the fall.
But we predict that troubles are not going to leave Facebook’s side until the elections are complete. And even after that it is possible that the new details are going to emerge on alleged Russian meddling which can always undermine Facebook’s reputation more. do you want to invest into something like that? We surely don’t.
Right now social networks don’t seem as attractive as they did just a few years ago. With everyone knowing everything it is hard to cover the truth plus people are more skilled in seeing the patterns of the market. That is why it is harder for the companies to hide the truth from its investors. That is why the flow of the investors is so hard to attract for virtually every country, even the ones as big as Facebook.
In any case it is better to wait for election to go by and see the results if the vote than to get into Facebook shares trading only to see them fall.