Over the weekend not much happened. With the beginning of autumn, we can see stronger dollar and weaker Asian stocks and indices that might signal about more turbulence coming to the emerging markets. But on august, 31 a little thing happened, that might seem very insignificant and was ignored but the majority of the world population and traders, but it might have a lot to do with shaping the future of ruble trading and Russian economy as a whole.

People’s Republic of Donetsk – a little republic at the east of Ukraine that used to be one of the most successful and reach part of this big Eastern European country. Now there is an unrecognized by the world society republic, allegedly led and supported by Russian government. Right up until last Friday it was headed by Aleksandr Zakharchenko. Friday’s evening, he died as a result of an explosion, that took place as he was walking into his favorite restaurant right in the center on Donetsk. See? Very insignificant. But the consequence for Russia might be very serious even though we didn’t even pay attention to the event as it happened.

The deal is that currently Russia is under multiple international sanctions because of its alleged taking part in the conflict in the East of Ukraine, that wouldn’t happen at all if it wasn’t for Russia. And now Russia has several ways to go. One of them is to use this occasion in order to escalate the conflict. But that would only land the country into more sanctions and restrictions from Germany and the USA.

Four years ago, when the whole endeavor only began Russian ruble stood at about 30 rubles per dollar and Russian economy was strong. The currency was moderately attractive for the investors and big international funds saw it as a hub. But after the sanctions were imposed, the currency fell by 2 times and right now it stands at somewhere about 65 rubles per dollar. In case of escalation of the conflict it is very possible that we should see more damage being done by sanctions. And the statement that Russian economy can take it is very doubtful.

International investors have long turned away from ruble, leaving it without international support. Traders try keep some of the asset, but a sell off is ready to begin any minute now. Even the talks of new US packages drop Russian currency lower. Not a pretty picture for international trading. And in case Russia resolves the problems that loom over its head, it seems that there is no salvation for its national currency.

See? A small occasion on the small piece of land that we didn’t even notice can crash national currency of a big oil treading country that has been building its economy in order to withstand low oil prices, but, as it turned out not international sanctions.

Pound-euro relations have been the aim for our eyes for a long time. We especially worry about their relations post-Brexit. And there are a lot of things to consider, like, for example, dollar performance for the exact days that Brexit is to take place on. How weak euro and pound are going to be under the growing [probably] greenback of that period. Will world markets be fully prepared for the hits that are for sure going to be taken by both currencies? Will May manage to come to the trade deal with the EU by March? And those are not all of the questions swirling in our minds right now. We desperately need something to take our minds off of it. And it seems that Italy might give us just the answer.

Somewhere in the next few weeks Italy is going to present the world with the new budget that is already surrounded with controversy. Remember when several months ago new Italian government were trying to push for the budget that would support the poor and euro crashed with the news of that? That’s the one! We don’t know for sure but just in case that is really going to happen, do not try and long euro for a couple of weeks, because we have the feeling that the untied European country is not going to like what might be coming.

The whole summer we have been waiting for the new budget unveiling and honestly, we have been fearing it as this summer wasn’t exactly the calmest and most convenient for the euro-traders as growing and falling greenback was worsening the situation virtually every week. Now, when we finally hoped for the calm trading autumn, it seems that we are going to have to face our fears.

Although we might be just too scared of the coming changes with Italian economy being more stable lately than it was a year ago. But we still can’t help but worry about the future of euro trading. What if the budget is so horrifying that all of the efforts are going to crash? Although, it can be equally as good, right?

Anyway, it seems that all of the efforts of the Italian government are now aimed at calming down the anticipating markets. After all handouts to the poor are going to bring a lot of additional discussions to the table.