Daily Video Review - 21/01
- Donald Herison
- English
- MARKETS NEWS
- Hits: 1433
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair increased up towards its resistance level, however once the pair test the resistance to break above, the pair lost momentum and declined back.
The movement remained sideways before today’s UK labor data releases.
At 9:30am GMT the UK Claimant Count Change, Unemployment rate and Average Earning Index will come out. The prediction is to see slightly worse figures that last month which may push the pair back to the support line. The movement is sideways.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) ECB Countdown
The European Central Bank is widely expected to unveil plans for massive bond purchases when it meets on Thursday. A Fed-style quantitative easing program is the last big weapon in the central bank's arsenal to boost the region's ailing economy and revitalize financial markets.
2) Gold Rallies
Anticipation of a move by the ECB is driving up gold prices. The precious metal is trading above $1,300 an ounce -- its highest level 5 months. Gold benefits from bets from money printing as the commodity is seen as a safe store of value and a hedge against inflation.
3) Earnings & Economics
American Express (AXP) and eBay (EBAY, Tech30) will post earnings after the closing bell. On the economic front, the US Census Bureau reports monthly housing starts and building permits at 8:30am ET.
4) Market Recap
US markets notched slim gains Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2% and the Nasdaq adding 0.4%. The Dow Jones industrial average was steady.
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What is it? It's among the primary method the BOC uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.
When? January 21st at 11:15am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.
Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.
When? January 21st at 10:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? It's the primary tool the BOC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.
When? January 21st at 10:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.
When? January 21st at 10:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.
It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building.
When? January 21st at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level.
It's a leading indicator of consumer spending - retailers generally order more goods from wholesalers when they expect consumer sales to increase.
When? January 21st at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? The BOE's MPC meeting minutes contain the interest rate vote for each MPC member during the most recent meeting. The breakdown of votes provides insight into which members are changing their stance on interest rates and how close the committee is to enacting a rate change in the future.
When? January 21st at 4:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.
Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.
When? January 21st at 4:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is lower than the forecast, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses.
It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
When? January 21st at 4:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair slightly recovered from the 11-years low and on the thin trading day increased towards the 1.1640. However, during the Asian session the pair started to decrease and currently is moving around 1.1570.
The price did not react much on the news from International Monetary Fund downgraded the global growth outlook. The market seems to wait for more relevant data which is coming today. At 10:00am GMT the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released. We should not forget, that the market will be more sensitive on negative data which would increase the probability of further QE.
Today the EUR/USD dropped but it may yet change.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) China Slowdown
The world's second largest economy is losing steam but not as sharply as feared. Official figures show China's GDP hit 7.4% in 2014 -- its slowest pace in more than two decades -- though the number wasn't as weak as analysts had expected.
2) Growth Jitters
Still, there was plenty of gloom shrouding the world economy as the International Monetary Fund cut its forecasts for global growth for this year and next. The IMF said even drastically lower oil prices will have limited impact on stimulating the economy. Oil prices continued to slide Tuesday, dropping below $48 a barrel.
3) International Markets
European markets were moving higher in early trading on growing hopes that the European Central Bank will unveil a market-boosting stimulus program later this week. Asian markets ended the session with solid gains including a 2% rise for Japan's Nikkei index. China's Shanghai Composite regained some ground after savage losses on Monday.
4) US Markets Recap
The Dow Jones industrial average snapped a five-day losing streak to gain 1.1% on Friday. The S&P 500 rose 1.3% and the Nasdaq closed 1.4% higher. Markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday.
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What is it? It's among the primary tools the BOJ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future rate decisions.
When? January 20th - Tentative.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the JPY to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
When? January 20th at 4:45pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the NZD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction.
It's a leading indicator of the nation's trade balance with other countries because rising commodity prices boost export income;.
When? January 20th - Tentative.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the NZD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - manufacturers are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their sales can be an early signal of future activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.
When? January 20th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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