Yesterday, US markets rallied at the open as oil prices rebounded slightly. However, the commodity failed to hold onto gains and fell back down, reigniting bearish sentiment.
Asian markets declined across the region. The Nikkei lost 2.01%, reaching a 6 week low. The Yen strengthened following the reelection of the current government, led by Prime Minister Abe and investors welcomed stability.
European markets are mixed today due to a number of factors. Investors are selling off riskier assets as they focus on oil prices and watch the Ruble’s collapse following the interest rate hike to 17%.
Oil reached a new 5 year low as OPEC made no indication that they would cut production despite the price dropping far below $60/barrel. Separately, the UAE Oil minister stated that OPEC would not cut production until the price falls as low as $40/barrel. The price is now rebounding slightly after positive data from across Europe. Traders should focus on inventory data from the API which will be released at 9:30pm GMT.
Gold dropped strongly but has since regained all losses as traders anticipate the FOMC meeting and its statement on Wednesday. Russia’s decision to hike rates has also brought uncertainty into the market increasing demand for safe haven assets.
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What is it? It checks the change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction.
It's a leading indicator of the nation's trade balance with other countries because rising commodity prices boost export income.
When? December 16th.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the NZD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.
It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building.
When? December 16th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - manufacturers are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their sales can be an early signal of future activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.
When? December 16th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) Fear is Here
Markets are extremely fearful as oil prices fall off a cliff and Russia struggles to deal with a full-blown currency crisis. Until recently, the index had been stuck in neutral for weeks.
Despite all that, US stock futures were edging higher and European markets reversed early losses to trade with small gains. Nearly all Asian markets closed with losses.
2) Oil Keeps Falling
Crude prices in the US are continuing to fall, with oil futures declining by about 3% overnight to trade near $54 per barrel.
The latest dip is being blamed on China, where new data from HSBC shows sentiment among key managers in the manufacturing sector dipped to a seven-month low in December. This data raises red flags about economic growth and demand for oil in the world's biggest importer.
The unexpectedly sharp fall in prices this year -- down by more than 45% since June -- is wreaking havoc on many oil-producing nations and creating unexpected knock-on effects around the world.
3) Panic in Russia
The Russian currency continues to fall Tuesday despite a shock overnight rise in interest rates to 17% from 10.5%. The ruble has fallen by roughly 50% versus the US dollar since the start of the year.
Russia, which relies heavily on its energy sector, is getting hurt by falling oil prices and tit-for-tat sanctions with various Western nations.
"The unease in Russia was a factor in causing nervous trade in many markets on Monday," said Simon Smith, a chief economist at FxPro in London.
4) Earnings and Economics
Darden Restaurants (DRI), the owner of chains like the Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, will report earnings before the opening bell.
The US government will release monthly data on housing starts and building permits at 8:30am ET.
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What is it? It checks the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity.
When? December 16th at 5:00am Eastern Time.
rading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the EUR to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
When? December 16th at 4:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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What is it? Governor Carney is due to hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report, in London.
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
When? December 16th at 4:15am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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What is it? It checks the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
When? December 16th at 3:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the EUR to rise.
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What is it? It checks the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
When? December 16th at 3:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the EUR to rise.
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US markets dropped on Friday posting a weekly loss for the first time in two weeks. Traders focused on falling oil prices and fears over the global economy. In addition, traders seemed to participate in an end of year sell off.
Asian markets declined across the region. The Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, and his coalition won the elections yesterday with the party winning more than 2/3 of the seats.
European markets are mixed today. The market is being hit by the upcoming Presidential vote in Greece which could cause a political deadlock.
Oil dropped to a new 5 year low after the IEA reduced their forecasts for global oil demand for 2015 by 230,000 barrels/ day. Today, the price rebounded slightly following news from Libya that one of their ports has halted production due to a strike. Traders will await data from China, Europe and the US later in the week to gauge demand.
Gold declined despite declines in the stock market. Speculation is ongoing that the Fed may provide more information on the Interest rate hike during their FOMC statement on Wednesday and many expect them to be hawkish.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) A Bounce After Big Losses
US stock futures are all moving up, setting the stage for a rebound after both the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 each dropped by about 3.5% last week.
European markets were also pushing higher in morning trading.
Concerns about the impact of plunging oil prices have contributed to recent market volatility. Crude futures were edging up Monday, and shares in big oil companies look set to rally, despite weekend reports that OPEC won't rush to cut oil production even if prices fall as low as $40 per barrel.
2) Bringing Abe Back
Japanese voters backed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a snap election Sunday.
The win gives Abe four more years to institute his policies aimed at reviving Japan's economy by flooding the market with cash, encouraging corporations to create more jobs and increasing government spending.
Japan unexpectedly slipped into a recession this year, dealing a blow to Abe's much-vaunted Abenomics economic revival strategy.
3) Australian Hostage Situation Hits Markets
The main Australian index was down by 0.6% Monday as markets reacted to a hostage situation at a cafe in Sydney.
Shares in Qantas Airways (QUBSF) dropped by 5.4% as investors predict the hostage standoff could hurt tourism and air travel.
4) Stock Market Mover -- Petsmart
Shares in Petsmart (PETM) are rising by about 6% premarket after the retailer agreed to be acquired for $8.7 billion in the largest private equity deal so far this year.
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What is it? It checks the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
When? December 15th at 8:45pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CNY to rise.
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What is it? It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
When? December 15th at 7:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers are nearing full capacity they respond by raising prices, and the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
When? December 15th at 9:15am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their expectations can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.
When? December 15th at 6:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers.
It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when manufacturers pay more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
When? December 15th at 3:15am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CHF to rise.
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US markets climbed after the release of positive data. Gains were initially stronger but declines were seen after oil prices dropped further.
Asian markets were mixed during today’s session. The Nikkei added 0.66% ahead of General elections on Sunday.
European markets are lower today as oil prices continue to fall. The FTSE 100 is currently down 1.54% and is being led by losses in energy companies.
Oil dropped below $60/barrel following a decision by the IEA to cut the demand outlook for 2015. This comes after OPEC and the EIA already reduced their 2015 forecasts. US supplies continue to increase and the price war is ongoing between OPEC and U.S. Shale Producers. It is estimated that the price could keep falling until OPEC decides to cut supply.
Gold declined slightly following positive US data. The price has remained above $1,220.000 as the global outlook is still on the downside. However, as US data continues to improve, speculation is boosted that interest rates could be raised sooner than expected.
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