Daily Video Review - 12/05
- Donald Herison
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During the early trading session, Asian stocks traded mixed as investors digest the government bond sell off from major central banks, as yields reached its highest levels since November. The Nikkei share average closed almost flat with a 0.03% increase, the Hang Seng Index was down 1.12% and the Shanghai Composite rallied 3.67% led by gains in the electricity, utilities and retailers sectors. Following the release of positive data from Australia the AUD traded higher against a basket of major currencies. The Home Loans for the month of March rose 1.6%, above the expected figure of 1%, this positive data indicates higher demand in the housing market.
During the European session, the British Pound continued to climb higher against the Dollar following strong UK data and the pair is currently trading at its highest level since December. The Manufacturing Production for the month of March showed that the inflation adjusted value of output produced rose 0.4%, higher than the forecast figure of 0.3%. The EUR/USD also traded higher as higher yields along with the global bond selloff pushed up the Euro. Furthermore, Greece paid a loan installment of 750 million Euros to the Monetary Fund lifting fears that the country could go into default, however, the nation is yet to lay out reforms and reach an agreement for an extension on the current debt bailout.
During early U.S. trade, American stocks traded lower as borrowing costs across global banks reached its highest levels since late last year. Nasdaq Composite is down 0.44%, S&P500 down 0.38% and Dow Industrial dropped 0.31%
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Once you understand the concept of a trend, the next major concept is that of support and resistance. You'll often hear technical analysts talk about the ongoing battle between the bulls and the bears, or the struggle between buyers (demand) and sellers (supply). This is revealed by the prices a security seldom moves above (resistance) or below (support).
Why Does it Happen?
These support and resistance levels are seen as important in terms of market psychology and supply and demand. Support and resistance levels are the levels at which a lot of traders are willing to buy the stock (in the case of a support) or sell it (in the case of resistance). When these trendlines are broken, the supply and demand and the psychology behind the stock's movements is thought to have shifted, in which case new levels of support and resistance will likely be established.
Round Numbers and Support and Resistance
One type of universal support and resistance that tends to be seen across a large number of securities is round numbers. Round numbers like 10, 20, 35, 50, 100 and 1,000 tend be important in support and resistance levels because they often represent the major psychological turning points at which many traders will make buy or sell decisions.
Buyers will often purchase large amounts of stock once the price starts to fall toward a major round number such as $50, which makes it more difficult for shares to fall below the level. On the other hand, sellers start to sell off a stock as it moves toward a round number peak, making it difficult to move past this upper level as well. It is the increased buying and selling pressure at these levels that makes them important points of support and resistance and, in many cases, major psychological points as well.
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What is it? Governor Wheeler is due to hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report, in Wellington.
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
When? May 12th at 5:05pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the NZD to rise.
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What is it? It provides insights into the bank's view of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future.
When? May 12th at 5:00pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the NZD to rise.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1. Crazy market moves?
There's quite a bit of volatility in markets this morning.
Investors are selling bonds and yields are moving up. Most major stock markets are in the red, especially in Europe. And the U.S. dollar is falling against all other major global currencies while the euro is rising, up 1% versus the greenback.
On the commodity side, gold prices are stable. Oil is rising slightly.
2. Stock market movers -- EasyJet, Carlsberg, Allianz, Shell
European sentiment is being dragged down this morning as some big companies are reporting disappointing corporate results.
Shares in easyJet (ESYJY) are falling by roughly 8% in London after the low-cost British airline warned that a recent French air traffic control strike in April would cost the company roughly £25 million ($39 million).
Shares in Carlsberg (CABGY) are off by 5% in Europe after investors reacted to the brewer's latest quarterly results. Its business continues to decline in Russia.
Allianz (AZSEY) stock is dipping by about 2.5% after the company reported its earnings.
Meanwhile, shares in Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) are edging down slightly in Europe, but is outperforming the market. The company has just received U.S. approval to drill in the Arctic. However, the oil firm will need a few more approvals before drilling can begin.
3. Earnings and economics
GoDaddy (GDDY) and Zillow (Z) will report after the close.
The Treasury Department will give a budget update at 2 p.m. ET.
4. Monday market recap
It was a negative day on Monday. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 86 points, the S&P 500 dipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq edged down by 0.2%.
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During the early trading session, Asian stocks traded higher as traders sought refuge in stocks following China’s rate cut. The People’s Bank of China voted to set the interest rate at 5.10% down from 5.35%, an economic slowdown in the country remains a concern after a number of recent negative data releases from manufacturing and services sectors. The Nikkei share average was up 1.25%, closing at 19,620 points and the Shanghai Composite rallied 3.35%. The AUD and NZD traded lower against a basket of major currencies as currency traders sentiment weighs over China, furthermore, New Zealand released a negative report showing that the number and value of card transactions with merchants had declined 0.7%, analysts had expected an increase of 0.5%.
During the European session, currencies are trading with little movement as economic reports from the Eurozone are today scarce. The British Pound is trading with Bullish sentiment against the Dollar as the Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged, traders are now awaiting the release of Wednesday inflation report to determine the state and growth of the economy. Currency traders also remain cautious ahead of talks between Greece and its creditors, the countries finance ministers need to lay out reforms in order to reach an agreement over the current debt bailout. If an agreement is not reached, then the country could go into default.
During early U.S. trade, stocks continued to trade higher after Friday’s rally. Wall Street remained supported following Fridays Nonfarm Payrolls. The economic report showed that 223,000 more people were employed during the previous month, only slightly down than the expected figure of 224,000 and up from the previous month, indicating growth in the jobs sector.
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What is it? It checks the change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes.
It's a leading indicator of demand in the housing market - most homes are financed, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market.
When? May 11th at 9:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.
Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.
When? May 11th at 7:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1. Rate cut in China
China's central bank cut interest rates over the weekend and stock markets responded by catapulting higher.
The China Shenzhen index surged by 4.5% and the Shanghai Composite index jumped by 3% on Monday.
This is the third rate cut in the last six months.
2. Earnings
Dish Network (DISH), Mobileye (MBLY) and Sotheby's (BID) are reporting ahead of the open.
3. Global economics
The Bank of England releases its rate decision Monday. Monetary policy in the U.K. has been very loose for a long time, but economists expect the central bank will eventually begin tightening the screws.
The British economy is improving so "it will be difficult to think of a situation why the monetary policy should remain at current level[s]," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade.
Eurozone finance ministers are meeting Monday to decide whether to help Greece by giving the indebted nation more loans. Investors continue to worry that Greece could soon default on its debt. The country has to make a €750 million ($838 million) debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday.
4. Stock market overview
U.S. stock futures are moving sideways, indicating it could be a quiet start to the day.
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During the early trading session, Asian stocks traded higher as major governments paused the paused the bond sell off. Over the past week countries, including, UK, Germany and the U.S. turned their focus to return of inflation and thus sparking a rise in bond yields, as they struggled with debt. The Nikkei share average was up 0.45%, closing at 19,379 points. Furthermore, Investors turned to the China stock market following the release of negative data. The Trade Balance for China showed a lower than expected reading of 34.13B. The Hang Seng rose 1.05% and the Shanghai Composite closed 0.73% higher.
During the European session, the Euro traded lower against the stronger Dollar as currency traders looked ahead to the Nonfarm Payrolls and following the release of weak data from Germany. The German Industrial Production and the trade balance both showed worse than expected figures for the month of March. The British pound rallied against the Dollar and reached its highest level in nearly two and a half months following the UK elections. Conservative party leader, Davis Cameron, was re-elected as Prime Minister sending UK markets upward, the FTSE 100 Index also jumped more than 2% as traders showed their relief over the victory.
During early U.S. trade, the American Bureau of Labour Statistics released the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls. The economic report showed that 223,000 more people were employed during the previous month, slightly lower than the expected figure of 224,000. The Dollar briefly weakened against a basket of major currencies, but then showed little change as traders digested the actual figure. The Dollar remains supported as the data was close to analysts’ expectations including the unemployment rate figure of 5.4%.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1. Ready for the jobs report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its highly anticipated monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Economists surveyed by CNNMoney project that 220,000 jobs were created in April, bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.4% from 5.5%.
In March, the economy added 126,000 jobs, which was well below expectations.
Some economists believe March was an aberration, while others say the data indicates that hiring is slowing down. If the April job number comes in below 200,000, investors will be on high alert.
Ahead of the release, U.S. stock futures are inching higher.
2. Markets jump after U.K. election
U.K. investors are waking up Friday to a surprise election win for Prime Minister David Cameron, and they're cheering the results.
London's benchmark index, the FTSE 100, rallied by 2% when markets opened. The FTSE 250, which tracks many mid-sized British companies, surged by just over 3%.
The British currency and bond markets are also rising as investors express relief that a contentious result has been avoided. The polls had been inconclusive in the lead-up to the election.
"For investors, a clear victor removes a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the near-term over the ability of the government to govern and legislate," explained Azad Zangana, senior European economist at Schroders.
European stock markets are also rising, though the gains are not as big.
3. China stocks
Chinese investors have been shaken from their state of prolonged euphoria this week as major stock markets have stumbled.
The main Chinese indexes closed the day with gains. But if you look at the week as a whole, the benchmark Shanghai Composite index is down by about 5%. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong also dipped by 2% this week.
For investors, the pullback is a major reality check. The Shanghai stock market has more than doubled over the past 16 months to its highest levels in six years.
4. Thursday market recap
The Dow Jones industrial average jumped by 82 points, while the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq closed with a 0.5% gain.
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What is it? It checks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to respond by raising interest rates.
When? May 8th at 9:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CNY to rise.
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What is it? It checks the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.
When? May 8th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is lower than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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During the early trading session, Asian stocks traded lower as major governments around the world sell bonds as they struggle with debt. Countries, including, UK, Germany and the U.S. have turned their focus to return of inflation and thus sparking a rise in bond yields, this week long sell-off is weighing on shareholders and investor sentiment and the Nikkei share average reached its lowest level in a month closing at 1.23% lower. Following the release of negative data from Australia, the AUD traded lower against the Dollar. The Employment change for April showed a decline of 2.9k, significantly worse than the expected rise of 5000 more employed people, the pair is currently trading above 0.79.
During the European session, the Euro dropped sharply against the Dollar as next week’s meeting between Greece and its creditors nears. The country is yet to show progress with laying down reforms for an extension of its current debt bailout, if no developments are made then finance ministers may consider to tighten their banks access to emergency liquidity. Furthermore, German data showed that the Factory orders for March grew less than expected with a 0.9% rise, analysts had expected a 1.5% increase.
The Dollar is trading higher against a basket of major currencies following a number of positive reports, including the continuous jobless claims and more importantly, the Initial Jobless claims which showed that 265,000 more people filed for unemployment, below the expected figure of 280,000. Binary Options traders are now awaiting the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls taking place tomorrow. Analysts expect that the number of people employed during April rose by 224,000, if the actual figure is lower than this could weaken the Dollar further in the short term.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1. Global stocks drop
The chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, reportedly said Wednesday that valuations in the stock market were "quite high." Yellen was speaking at a public question-and-answer session in Washington.
Investors responded by hitting the "sell button."
Nearly all European markets are pushing lower in early trading, with many markets sinking by more than 1%.
The FTSE 100 in London is also declining along with the crowd. The U.K. general election is being held Thursday and polling stations are now open. (For more on the election, see below.)
Asian markets ended with significant losses. All of the main indexes in China are off by 1% to 3%.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures are in the red, but the move is relatively small.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 86 points, the S&P 500 dipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq slid 0.4%.
2. Stock market movers -- Keurig, Whole Foods, Tesla
Shares in Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) were declining by about 12% in extended trading after the company reported that sales of its brewing machines and accessories tumbled 23% in the first quarter, compared to the year before.
Shares in Whole Foods (WFM) are also off by 12% premarket after the high-end grocery chain reported quarterly results that missed market expectations.
On the flip side, Tesla (TSLA) stock is edging higher after the firm reported a smaller-than-expected loss in the first quarter. CEO Elon Musk also said Wednesday he's seeing strong orders for the company's new home batteries.
3. Earnings and economics
A number of large companies are reporting earnings this morning. Alibaba (BABA, Tech30), SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS), Kate Spade (KATE) and Molson Coors (TAP) are among the firms reporting ahead of the open.
CBS (CBS) and Crocs (CROX) will report after the close.
On the economic side, the U.S. government will report weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET.
4. Pound getting pummeled?
Brits are casting their votes today in the most closely fought election for a very long time.
The pound is dropping versus all other major currencies. Market watchers say the currency could be hurt further if the result of the vote is inconclusive.
"For the markets, it is the very fact that the result is so uncertain that investors are yet to make their mind up as to how to position themselves," said Angus Campbell, a senior analyst at FxPro. "As ... the picture becomes clearer there's plenty of potential for volatility to pick up."
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