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EUR/USD BEFORE THE NFP:
GBP/USD BEFORE THE NFP:
During the early trading session, Asian stocks traded lower as major governments around the world sell bonds as they struggle with debt. Countries, including, UK, Germany and the U.S. have turned their focus to return of inflation and thus sparking a rise in bond yields, this week long sell-off is weighing on shareholders and investor sentiment and the Nikkei share average reached its lowest level in a month closing at 1.23% lower. Following the release of negative data from Australia, the AUD traded lower against the Dollar. The Employment change for April showed a decline of 2.9k, significantly worse than the expected rise of 5000 more employed people, the pair is currently trading above 0.79.
During the European session, the Euro dropped sharply against the Dollar as next week’s meeting between Greece and its creditors nears. The country is yet to show progress with laying down reforms for an extension of its current debt bailout, if no developments are made then finance ministers may consider to tighten their banks access to emergency liquidity. Furthermore, German data showed that the Factory orders for March grew less than expected with a 0.9% rise, analysts had expected a 1.5% increase.
The Dollar is trading higher against a basket of major currencies following a number of positive reports, including the continuous jobless claims and more importantly, the Initial Jobless claims which showed that 265,000 more people filed for unemployment, below the expected figure of 280,000. Binary Options traders are now awaiting the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls taking place tomorrow. Analysts expect that the number of people employed during April rose by 224,000, if the actual figure is lower than this could weaken the Dollar further in the short term.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1. Global stocks drop
The chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, reportedly said Wednesday that valuations in the stock market were "quite high." Yellen was speaking at a public question-and-answer session in Washington.
Investors responded by hitting the "sell button."
Nearly all European markets are pushing lower in early trading, with many markets sinking by more than 1%.
The FTSE 100 in London is also declining along with the crowd. The U.K. general election is being held Thursday and polling stations are now open. (For more on the election, see below.)
Asian markets ended with significant losses. All of the main indexes in China are off by 1% to 3%.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures are in the red, but the move is relatively small.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 86 points, the S&P 500 dipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq slid 0.4%.
2. Stock market movers -- Keurig, Whole Foods, Tesla
Shares in Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) were declining by about 12% in extended trading after the company reported that sales of its brewing machines and accessories tumbled 23% in the first quarter, compared to the year before.
Shares in Whole Foods (WFM) are also off by 12% premarket after the high-end grocery chain reported quarterly results that missed market expectations.
On the flip side, Tesla (TSLA) stock is edging higher after the firm reported a smaller-than-expected loss in the first quarter. CEO Elon Musk also said Wednesday he's seeing strong orders for the company's new home batteries.
3. Earnings and economics
A number of large companies are reporting earnings this morning. Alibaba (BABA, Tech30), SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS), Kate Spade (KATE) and Molson Coors (TAP) are among the firms reporting ahead of the open.
CBS (CBS) and Crocs (CROX) will report after the close.
On the economic side, the U.S. government will report weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET.
4. Pound getting pummeled?
Brits are casting their votes today in the most closely fought election for a very long time.
The pound is dropping versus all other major currencies. Market watchers say the currency could be hurt further if the result of the vote is inconclusive.
"For the markets, it is the very fact that the result is so uncertain that investors are yet to make their mind up as to how to position themselves," said Angus Campbell, a senior analyst at FxPro. "As ... the picture becomes clearer there's plenty of potential for volatility to pick up."
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What is it? It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.
When? May 7th at 9:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.
When? May 7th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is lower than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the total value of new building permits issued.
It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building.
When? May 7th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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One of the most important concepts in technical analysis is that of trend. The meaning in finance isn't all that different from the general definition of the term - a trend is really nothing more than the general direction in which a security or market is headed. Take a look at the chart below:
Figure 1
It isn't hard to see that the trend in Figure 1 is up. However, it's not always this easy to see a trend:
Figure 2
There are lots of ups and downs in this chart, but there isn't a clear indication of which direction this security is headed.
A More Formal Definition
Unfortunately, trends are not always easy to see. In other words, defining a trend goes well beyond the obvious. In any given chart, you will probably notice that prices do not tend to move in a straight line in any direction, but rather in a series of highs and lows. In technical analysis, it is the movement of the highs and lows that constitutes a trend. For example, an uptrend is classified as a series of higher highs and higher lows, while a downtrend is one of lower lows and lower highs.
Types of Trend
There are two types of trend:
Sideways/Horizontal Trends As the names imply, when each successive peak and trough is higher, it's referred to as an upward trend. If the peaks and troughs are getting lower, it's a downtrend. When there is little movement up or down in the peaks and troughs, it's a sideways or horizontal trend. If you want to get really technical, you might even say that a sideways trend is actually not a trend on its own, but a lack of a well-defined trend in either direction. In any case, the market can really only trend in these three ways: up, down or nowhere.
Trend Lengths
Along with these three trend directions, there are three trend classifications. A trend of any direction can be classified as a long-term trend, intermediate trend or a short-term trend. In terms of the stock market, a major trend is generally categorized as one lasting longer than a year. An intermediate trend is considered to last between one and three months and a near-term trend is anything less than a month. A long-term trend is composed of several intermediate trends, which often move against the direction of the major trend. If the major trend is upward and there is a downward correction in price movement followed by a continuation of the uptrend, the correction is considered to be an intermediate trend. The short-term trends are components of both major and intermediate trends. Take a look a Figure 3 to get a sense of how these three trend lengths might look.
Figure 3
When analyzing trends, it is important that the chart is constructed to best reflect the type of trend being analyzed. To help identify long-term trends, weekly charts or daily charts spanning a five-year period are used by chartists to get a better idea of the long-term trend. Daily data charts are best used when analyzing both intermediate and short-term trends. It is also important to remember that the longer the trend, the more important it is; for example, a one-month trend is not as significant as a five-year trend.
Trendlines
A trendline is a simple charting technique that adds a line to a chart to represent the trend in the market or a stock. Drawing a trendline is as simple as drawing a straight line that follows a general trend. These lines are used to clearly show the trend and are also used in the identification of trend reversals. As you can see in Figure 4, an upward trendline is drawn at the lows of an upward trend. This line represents the support the stock has every time it moves from a high to a low. Notice how the price is propped up by this support. This type of trendline helps traders to anticipate the point at which a stock's price will begin moving upwards again. Similarly, a downward trendline is drawn at the highs of the downward trend. This line represents the resistance level that a stock faces every time the price moves from a low to a high.
Figure 4
Channels
A channel, or channel lines, is the addition of two parallel trendlines that act as strong areas of support and resistance. The upper trendline connects a series of highs, while the lower trendline connects a series of lows. A channel can slope upward, downward or sideways but, regardless of the direction, the interpretation remains the same. Traders will expect a given security to trade between the two levels of support and resistance until it breaks beyond one of the levels, in which case traders can expect a sharp move in the direction of the break. Along with clearly displaying the trend, channels are mainly used to illustrate important areas of support and resistance.
Figure 5
Figure 5 illustrates a descending channel on a stock chart; the upper trendline has been placed on the highs and the lower trendline is on the lows. The price has bounced off of these lines several times, and has remained range-bound for several months. As long as the price does not fall below the lower line or move beyond the upper resistance, the range-bound downtrend is expected to continue.
The Importance of Trend
It is important to be able to understand and identify trends so that you can trade with rather than against them. Two important sayings in technical analysis are "the trend is your friend" and "don't buck the trend," illustrating how important trend analysis is for technical traders.
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