Tomorrow sees two big meetings in Europe, the success or failure of which could have major repercussions for markets, and the European political landscape.

In Minsk, Belarus, the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia are due to meet to try to hammer out a peace agreement.

Failure to reach an agreement will lead to further EU economic sanctions against Russia, which were delayed at yesterday's EU foreign minister's meeting to allow time for the diplomatic offensive tomorrow.

Failure would also make it easier for The United States to step up its plans to send lethal aid to Ukraine - plans that US president Barack Obama has not yet committed to.

If the prospect of all-out war on its eastern border is not enough for Europe to worry about, there is also the real prospect of a major sovereign debt blow-up on its southern border.

Tomorrow evening the finance ministers of the euro area meet to see if a new deal can be done for Greece.

Greece is pushing for a 10 billion euro bridging loan to allow it avoid a funding crunch, while also giving the new Greek government time to come up with a new plan for the sustainability of Greek finances.

So far Greek plans have met with very little support from other euro area finance ministers, with German's Schaeuble saying that Greece must agree to a full plan, rather than a bridging loan, or commit to the existing bailout program.

There are hints this morning that there may be some room to compromise on both sides ahead of the meeting tomorrow, but with both the Greeks and the other euro area finance ministers still seeming so far apart on the details, chances of failure are still high.

The meeting of euro area finance minister starts at 17:30 CET, with the press conference due to start at 21:00 CET. There is no scheduled time for a Minsk press conference yet.

 

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Nerves over Greece's future in the euro and the conflict in Ukraine dragged on European markets on Tuesday, while bets on the likelihood of a US interest rate hike nudged the dollar higher and oil prices held steady after a rebound.

European stocks fell 0.3 percent and the euro slipped towards $1.13 ahead of what is set to be a tense, Greece-dominated meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Wednesday.

The global disinflation/deflation story was also back on investors' radar as Chinese inflation fell below 1 percent to its lowest in five months, drawing talk of further easing from China's central bank, the PBOC.

That had sent shares in Shanghai up more than 1 percent, though other Asian stocks eased on more generalized risk aversion.

 

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Yes, you heard right! On Friday we had over 90% winning trades after we successfully predicted the NFP announcement.

Predicting the NFP isn’t a small task, but our analysts got it right. If you missed out on Friday’s trades, don’t worry, the NFP happens every month and you can get it next time!

Below are the results from Friday, enjoy J

 

 

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Today is the NFP – Non-Farm Payrolls. This checks the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

This is by far the most important announcement each month since it’s released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts.

Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

When? February 6th at 8:30am Eastern Time.

Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.

 

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ISIS controls a few small oil fields in the north and some small refineries in Syria, which it uses to finance its operations.

All this money not only finances its terror network but is also used to expand it. ISIS pays better salaries than those paid to the Syrian rebels and the Syrian or Iraqi armies, both of which have witnessed mass desertions.

The organization largely relies not on external funding rather on the production and sale of seized energy assets—Iraq has the fifth-largest proven crude oil reserves in the world.

ISIS also depends on the steady income it extracts from private donors, the heavy taxation and extortion it levies on its captive population, the seizure of bank accounts and private assets in the lands it occupies, ransoms from kidnappings and the plundering of antiquities excavated from ancient palaces and archaeological sites.

It controls parts of Syria and Iraq having a population of almost 8 million people. Apart from the usual methods of extortion from businesses, protection money from minorities and collecting ransoms for releasing hostages, they also control the trade.

 

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Apple waded into the bond market for the third time in as many years on Monday, raising a larger-than-expected $6.5 billion as part of a $130 billion program to return capital to shareholders.

The deal was just over half the $12 billion Apple issued in April 2014, and much smaller than its $17 billion debut in 2013. At $20 billion, the order book at its peak was about half that seen last time out.

Observers saw the deal as a success, saying the bigger new issue concessions reflected more volatile Treasuries rather than investor weariness with Apple's shareholder-friendly ways.

"The bigger new issue concessions at the long end are completely a function of the market," said one syndicate manager not directly involved with the transaction.

"The $6.5 billion deal was $1.5 billion bigger than expected -- and at concessions that were flat to, say, 8bp across the tranches. (That) is a nice outcome for them, when you compare it to the 10-15bp concessions borrowers were paying at the beginning of January."

 

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