Get ready for a busy Wednesday.
U.S. stock futures are ticking higher after China released GDP figures, and Greece prepares to hold crucial vote on its latest bailout.
1) China GDP
The world's second largest economy grew at a slightly faster pace than expected in the second quarter. Official figures out Wednesday put GDP at 7%, in line with the previous quarter, and Beijing's growth target for the full year.
Growth has slowed considerably from the breakneck pace of previous years, and it's expected to drop further through to 2016.
The positive quarterly numbers didn't stop falls on China's stock markets. The Shanghai Composite resumed its recent slide to close down 3%.
2) Greece votes
Greek lawmakers will vote to ratify tough economic reforms on Wednesday needed to secure Europe's latest offer of $96 billion to bailout the country.
But the International Monetary Fund, one of Greece's major creditors, has warned on the viability of the bailout. The IMF said Tuesday that the country's debt has become "highly unsustainable," and it needs more debt relief than Europe has so far been willing to consider.
3) Oil dips
Crude prices have regained some poise, slipping 0.5% to just below $53 a barrel in electronic trading, after a landmark deal on Iran's nuclear program sealed Tuesday prompted a turbulent session for oil.
4) Earnings and economics
It's a busy day for earnings. Bank of America (BAC) and Delta (DAL) will report ahead of the open along with Blackrock (AOCXX).
Computer chip maker Intel (INTC, Tech30) and Netflix (NFLX, Tech30) report quarterly earnings after the close. Netflix (NFLX, Tech30) shares were rising 2.4% premarket.
On the economic front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its producer price index with June numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET. Numbers on June industrial production will also release at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will deliver her semi-annual testimony before Congress at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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What is it? This is extremely late relative to inflation data from other countries, but it's the primary gauge of consumer prices and tends to create hefty market impacts. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling.
When? At 6:45pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the NZD to rise.
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What is it? The press conference has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The press conference is audio webcasted on the BOC website. It's among the primary method the BOC uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.
When? At 11:15am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? It's a leading indicator of the nation's trade balance with other countries because rising commodity prices boost export income.
When? Tentative
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the NZD to rise.
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What is it? Fed Chair Feb 2014 - Feb 2018. Fed Governor Oct 2010 - Jan 2024. The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first she reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed's website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility.
When? At 10:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It's the primary tool the BOC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.
When? At 10:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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1. The dollar regained ground against the other major currencies on Tuesday after initially falling to session lows when data showed that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell last month.
The dollar turned lower after the Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.3% in June, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase
2. Crude oil futures recovered from earlier losses on Tuesday, as traders looked ahead to weekly data on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products later in the day.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for August delivery inched up 15 cents, or 0.25%, to trade at $52.35 a barrel during U.S. morning hours after hitting a session low of $50.90 earlier.
3. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in June as households cut back on purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods, which could raise concerns the economy was slowing again.
Tuesday's weak retail sales report, together with signs of some softening of the labor market, could dampen expectations for an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year, which most economists expect could come in September.
4. U.S. stocks edged higher, trading in a narrow range, early on Tuesday as investors focus on U.S. corporate earnings and oil prices pared some losses after a steep fall earlier in the day.
Oil prices had tumbled due to expectations of increased supply after Iran's nuclear deal, but trimmed some losses as the expected rise in supply was already priced in over recent weeks.
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What is it? The BOC Governor usually holds a press conference to discuss the contents of this report about 45 minutes after release. It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.
When? At 10:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
When? At 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It's a leading indicator of economic health - manufacturers are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their sales can be an early signal of future activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.
When? At 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? Eurogroup meetings are usually held in Brussels and attended by the Eurogroup President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, and the President of the European Central Bank. They discuss a range of financial issues, such as euro support mechanisms and government finances. The meetings are closed to the press but officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day, and a formal statement covering meeting objectives may be released after the meetings have concluded.
When? All Day
Trading Tip: This announcement can greatly affect the EUR so make sure to follow it!
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What is it? It's the first indication of the employment situation, released a month earlier than the Unemployment Rate. Source changed series calculation formula as of Jun 2015. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.
When? At 4:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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What is it? Data represents the 3-month moving average compared to the same period a year earlier. A figure that excludes bonuses is also released, but not included for lack of significance. Source changed series calculation formula as of Jan 2010. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
When? At 4:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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What is it? Source does not give an exact start time - the event will be listed as 'Tentative' until the press conference begins. It's among the primary methods the BOJ uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation, and clues regarding future monetary policy.
When? Tentative
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the JPY to rise.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
Markets are looking calm Tuesday though a landmark deal on Iran's nuclear program is hitting oil prices.
European markets slipped and U.S. stock futures were edging lower.
1) Iran deal
Iran and the West have ended long-running negotiations with a deal that will lift sanctions in exchange for curbs on Tehran's nuclear program.
Sanctions have hobbled Iran's economy and restricted oil production and exports, and the country is eager to regain its status as a global energy power.
Crude prices slumped 1.8% to just above $51 a barrel in electronic trading as investors reacted to the deal, which could see a flood of new oil supplies from Iran.
2) Greek bailout
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will face disgruntled colleagues and the Greek public as he seeks approval for a new bailout. The deal contains tough new austerity measures and Greek lawmakers will vote on the first package of reforms, which include pension cuts and tax increases, on Wednesday.
The bailout could inject up to $96 billion into the distressed economy, but it's not a done deal yet.
"Getting the deal though parliaments elsewhere in Europe won't be all that easy, but it's in Greece that the fallout could be seen most clearly in the form of new elections," Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes said.
3) Earnings and economics
It's a busy day for earnings updates. Wells Fargo (CBEAX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) all report ahead of the open. Yum! Brands (YUM) -- which owns Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and KFC -- will report after the close. Its stock is up 25% this year, but analysts forecast a 12% drop in the restaurant company's earnings.
4) Market movers
Chinese state-owned firm Tsinghua Unigroup is preparing a $23 billion bid for U.S. chipmaker Micron, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. Micron (MU) shares were up 10% in premarket trading.
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What is it? It's among the primary tools the BOJ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future rate decisions.
When? Tentative
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the JPY to rise.
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What is it? Data represents the quarterly value compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.
When? At 10:00pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CNY to rise.
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What is it? Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends.
When? At 08:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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