What is it? It checks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.
Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends.
When? March 12th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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Luis:
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During today’s early trading session, Asian stocks traded lower after mixed Chinese data. During early trade, USOil traded lower as the Dollar remained supported following a number of positive U.S. data releases.
During the European session, the Euro continued to decline against the Dollar, and reached its lowest level in 12 years, this came as significantly stronger data from the U.S. renewed expectations that the Fed is to raise interest rates midyear as the American economy continues to show improvement. Concerns over the situation in Greece also continued to weigh on the Euro, as talks between finance ministers extend to a second day in order to reach an agreement over Greece’s debt bailout.
During early U.S. trade, the Dollar continued to trade higher against a basket of major currencies, but gains were limited after U.S. data showed JOLTs job openings rose by 4.998M, lower than the expected figure of 5.053M, despite this slightly negative report, market sentiment over the U.S. economy remains supported.
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1) Stock market movers -- Credit Suisse, Qualcomm, Urban Outfitters, Audi
Shares in Credit Suisse (CS) are surging by about 7% in Europe after the bank appointed a new CEO, Tidjane Thiam. American Brady Dougan, who has led the Swiss bank for the past eight years, will be stepping down in June.
Shares in Qualcomm (QCOM, Tech30) are rising by about 4% premarket after the high-tech chip maker announced a massive share buyback program worth at least $10 billion. Plus, the company is also hiking its dividend by 14%.
Urban Outfitter (URBN) shares were moving higher in extended trading after the retailer reported better-than-expected quarterly results. Sales topped $1 billion for the first time.
In Germany, shares in Audi (AUDVF) were rising by about 4% after the automaker reported solid full-year results. The company's chairman said Audi is hoping to set new sales records in 2015.
2) Global market overview
U.S. stock futures are moving down, alongside a slide in European markets. Most Asian stock markets ended with modest losses.
Crude oil futures and gold prices are both declining by about 1%. And the U.S. dollar continues to push higher against a number of global currencies, in particular against the euro.
"The relative strength of the U.S. economy is clear from the action of the dollar overnight," explained Tom Beevers, CEO at StockViews.
Traders have pushed the U.S. currency higher as they expect the Federal Reserve will be forced to hike interest rates soon from rock bottom levels. That contrasts starkly with the eurozone, where massive monetary stimulus has just started.
3) Earnings
Barnes and Noble (BKS) is reporting ahead of the open. Weibo (WB) will report after the close.
4) Chinese inflation recovers
Official data shows consumer prices in China rose by 1.4% last month, recovering from a five-year low in January. However, the jump in inflation is generally being attributed to the shift in timing of the Chinese New Year.
"We still expect inflation to fall back below 1% in [the] coming months," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, a China economist at Capital Economics.
Downward price pressures in the world's second biggest economy prompted the central bank to cut interest rates at the start of the month.
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What is it? It checks the change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes.
It's a leading indicator of demand in the housing market - most homes are financed, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market.
When? March 10th at 8:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? Governor Carney is due to testify before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee, in London.
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
When? March 10th at 10:35am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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During today’s early trading session, Asian stocks traded lower after weak Japanese data showed a decline in the difference between exported and imported goods, furthermore, the yearly and fourth quarterly GDP figures also showed lower than expected figures adding to concerns that Japan could struggle to reach their inflation target of 2%. Tomorrow, China will release more data including the yearly CPI, if the report is positive than this could push the price of gold up in the short term.
During the European session, the EUR/USD retreated slightly from 11 and a half year lows, however, the pair is trading with little volatility after Friday’s slump following the release of positive U.S. data. The Nonfarm Payrolls showed that 295,000 jobs were added during the month of February, far higher than the expected figure of 240,000. Today, the ECB started its €60 Billion a month bond buying program which could keep the Euro trading lower against a basket of major currencies, and push investors towards the stock market. Traders are now awaiting the outcome of the Greek bailout agreement as finance ministers hold talks later today.
During early U.S. trade, the Dollar remains supported against major currencies after Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report. The significantly stronger Nonfarm payrolls renewed expectations that the Fed is to raise interest rates mid year as the American economy continues to show improvement. USOil jumped at the open of Wallstreet, as the market reacted to data showing that the number of Crude stockpiles rose less than expected last week, the commodity is currently trading above $50/barrel.
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Watching the Apple Watch
Apple (AAPL, Tech30), the most valuable company on the planet, is holding an event in San Francisco Monday afternoon where CEO Tim Cook is expected to reveal the last remaining details about the Apple Watch.
Wall Street will be watching the announcement closely, and trading in Apple shares could be more volatile than normal.
"Making it rain" in Europe
The European Central Bank is "making it rain" as it begins printing €60 billion per month to boost the regional economy and lift inflation.
The stimulus program is similar to the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, which helped lift America out of the Great Recession by pumping money into the economy.
Greek debacle continues
Eurozone finance ministers meet again Monday to discuss Greece's future.
The heavily indebted country has proposed a number of measures to ensure it continues to receive loan money from its European partners for the next few months, but the government's proposals have faced criticism for falling short of expectations.
Greece needs the European support in order to keep paying its bills and debts. Otherwise, it could be forced to print its own currency and quit the euro.
Stock market overview
U.S. stock futures are shifting lower and European markets are all falling in early trading. Nearly all Asian markets ended with losses.
The mood is negative as investors consider the prospect that the Fed will have to raise rates soon in the light of data showing the job market continues to improve.
On Friday, U.S. stocks took a dive after the government released monthly jobs data for February.
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What is it? It checks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to respond by raising interest rates.
When? March 9th at 9:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CNY to rise.
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What is it? It checks the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.
When? March 9th at 8:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? Eurogroup meetings are usually held in Brussels and attended by the Eurogroup President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, and the President of the European Central Bank. They discuss a range of financial issues, such as euro support mechanisms and government finances. The meetings are closed to the press but officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day, and a formal statement covering meeting objectives may be released after the meetings have concluded.
The Eurogroup coordinates economic policies of the 19 euro area member states, and their initiatives and decisions can have a widespread effect on the Eurozone's economic health.
When? March 9th all day long.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the EUR to rise.
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During today’s early trading session, Asian stocks traded higher after the European Central Bank’s press conference. ECB’s President, Mario Draghi laid out details of the quantitative easing program which is to start on March 9th. Implementing stimulus measures in the Eurozone, will drive market spectators to the stock market and in turn weaken the Euro. Elsewhere, shares in China rose following comments by Minister of Finance, Lou Jowei, he stated that he will increase the intensity of fiscal policy to ensure economic growth”.
During the European session, the Euro continues to drop sharply against the Dollar and has now reached its lowest level in over 11 years. The weaker Euro is an expected move following Thursday’s ECB press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi announced that €60 Billion a month of asset purchases will begin on March 9th. Following the details of the quantitative easing programme, European shares remain higher as the Euro declines.
During early U.S. trade, the Dollar is rallying against a basket of major currencies ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls release later today. It is expected that 240,000 people were employed during the month of February. The U.S. unemployment rate will also be released, expected to have risen by 5.6%. Better than forecasted figures could influence the Fed to increase interest rates sooner.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) Jobs Report
The Labor Department is posting its monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Economists surveyed by CNNMoney predict that 235,000 jobs were created in February, down from 257,000 the month before. They are expecting the unemployment rate to edge down to 5.6% from 5.7% in January.
While the U.S. economy is creating more jobs overall, there's concern about the energy sector. Companies have been slashing jobs as oil prices have fallen.
Another key number to watch Friday is average hourly wage growth. In January, American wages were only going up 2.2% annually -- far below the goal of 3.5%.
2) Placid Markets
U.S. stock futures are relatively flat, which is normal ahead of the jobs report.
European markets are mixed in early trading. Asian markets also ended with mixed results. The biggest mover was the Nikkei in Japan, which jumped 1.2%.
3) Stock Market Movers -- Bank of America, Thomas Cook
Share in Bank of America (BAC) are edging up premarket after the Federal Reserve gave the bank, and 30 other major players, a clean bill of health following its latest stress tests. It's worth keeping an eye on other bank stocks, particularly Citigroup (C), which may now be able to hike its dividend and launch a share buyback.
Shares in travel company Thomas Cook (TCKGY) are surging in London by about 16% after China's Fosun International (FOSUF) announced it had bought a 5% stake in the firm, worth about £92 million ($140 million).
4) Earnings and Economics
Staples (SPLS), Big Lots (BIG) and Foot Locker (FL) are reporting ahead of the open.
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What is it? It checks the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.
When? March 6th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is lower than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.
Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
When? March 6th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the total value of new building permits issued.
It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building.
When? March 6th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the total value of foreign currency reserves held by the SNB.
It provides insight into the SNB's currency market operations, such as how actively they are defending the franc's exchange rate against the euro.
When? March 6th at 3:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is lower than the forecast, you can expect the CHF to rise.
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