During today’s early trading session, The Nikkei rebounded from its 7 and a half year highs as investors took profits.. Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor, Glenn Stevens speech, the AUD traded higher. Stevens backed the reduction in interest rates and possible future monetary policy in order to rebalance the economy.
During the European trading session, the Euro rallied against the Dollar after the release of positive data. Germany released figures showing that the fourth quarterly and yearly CPI both came in higher than expected. The EUR/USD is currently trading above 1.400.
Traders are currently awaiting US data, including the Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment to be released at 15:00 GMT, furthermore, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Member Fisher will be speaking at 18:30 GMT. FOMC members are responsible for setting interest rates and their statements are closely watched for indications on the future monetary policy.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) Markets Looking Up
US stock futures are edging higher, European markets are rising in early trade and nearly all Asian markets closed with gains.
In Germany, the key Dax index has broken through the 11,000 mark for the first time, powered forward by better than expected economic growth figures.
Clearly, traders aren't feeling especially superstitious right now. Tom Beevers, CEO at StockViews, said markets were growing more optimistic about Ukraine and Greece.
A ceasefire in Ukraine was agreed Thursday and is expected to be enacted on Sunday.
And the European Central Bank is reportedly providing further emergency financing to Greek banks to ensure they can continue functioning smoothly even as fears remain that Greece could stumble out of the eurozone. The FTSE Greek banking index is rising by 13%.
"While geopolitical tensions remain high around the world, there are signs of progress," said Beevers.
2) Eurozone GDP
The Eurozone of 19 countries posted economic growth of 0.3% in the last quarter of 2014, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary estimate. This was towards the high end of expectations.
Both Germany and Spain saw their economies grow by 0.7%, while France and Italy continued to stagnate.
3) Economics
The University of Michigan will post its monthly consumer sentiment index at 10am ET.
4) Thursday Market Recap
Stocks jumped over the previous trading session.
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What is it? It checks the level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.
Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
When? February 13th at 10:00am Eastern Time.
If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - manufacturers are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their sales can be an early signal of future activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.
When? February 13th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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During today’s early trading session, the Nikkei reached 17,979, a 1.9% increase, its highest level in 7 and a half years. This rally came after Japanese data showed that yearly and monthly Core Machinery Orders had risen more than expected. Over the past year the Yen has continued to weaken and in turn boosted exporters such as Toyota and Sony. Following the release of the Australian Employment Change the AUD weakened against a basket of currencies after the report showed a decline of 12.2k.
During the European trading session, the British pound rallied against the Dollar after positive reports from the UK The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, stated today “it is now more likely that CPI inflation will dip briefly below zero at some point in the first half of 2015”, but pointed out that there was “no threat of deflation”. Carney also said, “The take-home pay is expected to grow at its fastest pace in a decade”.
During early US trade the Dollar index dropped to 11,836 after negative data. The US Core Retail sales, Retail Sales and Jobless claims all showed worse than expected results. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment during the past week showed 304,000, above the expected figure of 285,000 and Retail sales dropped 0.8%. The Euro remains steady against the Dollar after no compromise has yet been reached in regards to the extension of the current bailout agreement.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) Ukraine Ceasefire
There could be light at the end of the tunnel for war-torn Ukraine.
Leaders from Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany have agreed on a ceasefire that's due to start Sunday. Those involved in the bloody conflict in Eastern Ukraine have agreed to pull back heavy weapons.
The main stock market index in Ukraine is surging by about 6%.
The new ceasefire agreement is raising hopes that tensions between Western nations and Russia could ease, since the US and Europe have accused Russia of supporting separatist fighters in Eastern Ukraine.
This comes just hours after the International Monetary Fund announced it would give Ukraine a new $17.5 billion bailout package to help stabilize the nation's reeling economy.
2) Greece is the Word
European political leaders will continue negotiating a deal aimed at ensuring Greece can repay its debts and remain in the Eurozone.
Little progress was made during talks between finance ministers on Wednesday. European leaders are expected to continue discussing the issues Thursday, while finance ministers will resume their negotiations Monday.
The goal is to avert a new crisis that could force Greece to drop the euro.
Greece's new government says it wants to tear up the existing international bailout program and win six months of bridge financing to give it breathing space to negotiate a longer term solution.
The current bailout program is set to end on February 28.
3) Stocks Rising
US stock futures and European markets are moving higher Thursday. The main stock market index in Germany -- the Dax -- is rising by more than 1%.
Most Asian markets ended the day with gains.
4) Wednesday Market Recap
The main US indexes posted muted results Wednesday. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 7 points, the S&P 500 was unchanged and the Nasdaq rose by 0.3%
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What is it? Governor Stevens is due to testify before the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics, in Canberra.
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
When? February 12th at 5:30pm Eastern Time.
If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.
When? February 12th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is lower than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
When? February 12th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.
Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends.
When? February 12th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.
When? February 12th at 5:30am Eastern Time.
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What is it? Governor Carney is due to hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London.
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
When? February 12th at 5:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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During today’s early trading session, Asian markets were lower as concerns over Greece weighed down on sentiment. Investors await to see whether the government will reach a compromise before the current bailout expires later this month. Despite positive Australian Home loans data, currency markets traded with low volatility this morning, as Japanese markets are closed for a public holiday.
European stocks are trading lower after Minister Yanis Varoufakis won a parliamentary confidence vote for its disagreeance to extend the existing bailout agreement. Once expired it could cause the country’s exit from the EU. Currency markets are trading cautiously today ahead of Greek talks, and due to lack of European data. Volatility should pick up after a number of releases tomorrow, including the German CPI and HICP reports.
During early US trade oil continued to drop and is currently trading below $50 a barrel. This decline came after the the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned about global supply and demand. At the opening of the American session, the Dollar jumped against the EUR, Yen and the CAD after the currency is boosted as a safe haven asset due to the political situation in Greece.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) Greek Tragedy?
European finance officials will hold emergency talks in Brussels at 11:30am. ET in an attempt to map out the future of Greece's bailout program.
Greece is looking to secure a bridge loan for a few months, giving it time to hammer out a replacement to the existing bailout program which expires on February 28. The country's newly elected government wants to reverse a string of economic reforms in defiance of the terms set by its international lenders.
But its lenders in Europe -- which have collectively given Greece about €240 billion ($272 billion) over the past five years -- want Greece to stick to the terms of its bailout. A new debt crisis could end up pushing Greece out of the eurozone.
Kit Juckes, a market strategist at Societe Generale, says investors expect a deal will be hashed out.
"Markets are priced for some kind of stop-gap deal which allows the European Central Bank to continue financing Greek banks and lets talks continue," he said.
Greece's main stock market index is declining by about 3%.
2) Ukraine Talks Continue
World leaders are also trying to agree on how to stop the bloodshed and violence in Eastern Ukraine.
President Obama spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin last night to discuss the situation. Putin is flying to Minsk Wednesday to speak with political leaders about a new peace deal.
Western nations have accused Russia of contributing to the violence and separatist tensions in Eastern Ukraine, and have responded by issuing harsh sanctions against Russia. More sanctions against Russia could come into force next week.
3) Corporate Earnings and Updates
PepsiCo (PEP), Mondelez (MDLZ) and Time Warner (TWC), which owns CNN, are reporting quarterly earnings before the opening bell.
Cisco (CSCO, Tech30), Tesla Motors (TSLA) and Whole Foods (WFM) will report after the close.
4) Tuesday Market Recap
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 140 points, while the S&P 500 rose 1.1% and the Nasdaq moved up by 1.3%.
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What is it? It checks the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.
When? February 11th at 7:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is lower than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the number of employed people during the previous month.
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
When? February 11th at 7:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? The Eurogroup coordinates economic policies of the 17 euro area member states, and their initiatives and decisions can have a widespread effect on the Eurozone's economic health.
When? February 11th at all day long.
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