On Friday, the EUR/USD dropped after data released in the Eurozone showed that the yearly CPI fell by 0.6%. Analysts had expected an annual decline of 0.5%. During today’s early trading sessions, the pair rebounded after Friday’s decline. This comes as traders remain cautious over Greece’s future as a member of the European Union. Investors should now keep their eye on a number of data releases tomorrow, including the Spanish unemployment change.
On Friday, the Dollar weakened against the Yen after U.S. data showed that the last quarterly Gross Domestic Product grew by 2.6%, lower than the expected figure of 3.0%.
By the close of Fridays U.S. trading session, Gold had rallied to $1.284/ounce after data releases from the U.S. showed that the economy grew by 2.6%. A weaker Dollar boosts the usually safe haven metal appeal. Today, the price of Gold declined after negative data from China showed that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index dropped to its lowest level in two years.
U.S markets ended lower on Friday and posted losses for the month. The number was very disappointing and suggested that the economy is decelerating. If data continues in this way, this would reduce the chance that the Fed would increase interest rates in June.
Asian markets declined across the region.
European markets are mixed today.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) New Month, New Direction?
US stock futures are edging higher ahead of February's first trading day, but the moves are modest and the mood cautious.
"February starts with a feeling of apprehension," said Angus Campbell, a senior market analyst at FxPro. When the S&P 500 tumbles in January, that's "historically considered to be a bad sign for equities, leading to a negative year for the stock market."
2) Greek Drama
Greek stock markets are bouncing back after a week of steep losses. Bank stocks are leading the rebound, but are still nursing losses of between 30% and 40% for the year so far on fears that a clash between Greece's new government and its creditors will cut them off from vital ECB support.
European markets were creeping higher in early trade, but uncertainty about Greece and weak economic data from China kept a lid on gains.
China's official manufacturing index dipped below 50 for the first time since 2012, more evidence that activity in the country's all-important factories is slowing. The slowdown raises the likelihood that China will cut interest rates again, or launch other stimulus measures.
Asian markets ended mostly weaker. The Shanghai Composite index led the way with a decline of 2.6% Monday. That was the fifth consecutive daily decline.
3) Earnings
Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Sysco (SYY) are among the main companies reporting earnings Monday. They will both report before the opening bell.
4) Economics
The US Census Bureau will report December construction spending at 10:00am ET.
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What is it? It's among the primary tools the RBA Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.
When? February 2nd at 10:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.
Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.
When? February 2nd at 10:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.
Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
When? February 2nd at 7:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the number of new building approvals issued.
It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building. Construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various services are purchased by the builder.
When? February 2nd at 7:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
When? February 2nd at 10:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
When? February 2nd at 4:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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U.S markets climbed as jobless claims plunged, showing further improvement in the labour market. Initial Jobless claims dropped to 265,000, much lower than the expected 300,000 and Continuing Jobless Claims dropped to 2,385K, below the expected 2,420k. In addition, oil prices rebounded and climbed back up to $45/barrel, boosting energy shares.
Asian markets were mixed today. The Nikkei climbed 0.39% despite the Yen strengthening against the dollar.
European markets are lower today after European CPI missed expectations and declined by 0.6%.
Oil dropped to a 6 year low following an inventory report from the EIA. The report showed that supplies in the U.S climbed by 9million barrels over the past week, much above the expected increase of 4.2 million barrels. Yesterday, however, the price rebounded upwards and is currently trading around $45/barrel. As fundamentals remain weak we do not expect this bullish sentiment to continue.
Gold dropped further following the release of strong labour data in the U.S. The price has since climbed upwards but is still leaning towards the worst week in 2 months. Traders should watch GDP data which will be released at 1.30 PM (GMT).
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) Even More Earnings
Chevron (CVX), MasterCard (MA) and Mattel (MAT) are reporting earnings before the opening bell.
Chevron earnings will be a particular focus as investors look for signs of how rock-bottom crude prices are affecting the company's plans. Mattel shares tumbled nearly 5% premarket after the company said sales and profits fell in the fourth quarter. Barbie sales dropped 12%.
U.S. stock futures were sharply lower ahead of the open.
On Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.3%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 1.0%.
2) Amazon Jumps
Online retail giant Amazon (AMZN, Tech30) reported earnings Thursday that beat Wall Street's expectations. Its shares soared by more than 11% in premarket trading. Google (GOOG) shares were also firmer premarket.
3) A little Bit of Data
The University of Michigan will report the final version of its January consumer sentiment index at 9:55am ET.
4) International Markets Overview
European markets opened firmer on Wall Street's gains, but turned lower in morning trade.
Greek stocks were steady, with banks continuing to recover after slumping earlier this week on fears about the future of the country's international bailout. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will meet eurozone officials in Athens Friday for the first time since winning Sunday's election.
Russia slashed interest rates to 15% from 17% in a bid to prevent an even deeper recession.
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What is it? It checks the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.
When? January 30th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.
When? January 30th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CAD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
When? January 30th at 5:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the EUR to rise.
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The FOMC statement was released yesterday and showed optimism regarding the US economy. Members of the committee expressed belief that the economy is improving at a ‘solid’ pace and that the labour market conditions are advancing making the possibility of hiking interest rates during the first half of the year more likely. US markets finished lower.
Asian markets declined across the region. The Nikkei lost 1.06% despite the fact that the Dollar climbed against the Yen due to weaker than expected earnings.
European markets are mixed today.
Oil dropped to a 6 year low following an inventory report from the EIA. The report showed that supplies in the US climbed by 9million barrels over the past week, much above the expected increase of 4.2 million barrels. The stronger Dollar also affects the price so traders should focus on US data including Pending Home Sales later today.
Gold declined and reached a low of 1,264 following the FOMC statement. It is widely expected that interest rates will now be increased in June reducing the appeal of the safe haven asset. In addition, the metal moves inversely to the Dollar which is appreciating on the back of strong data.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) Expecting Earnings
Alibaba (BABA, Tech30), Ford (F), Coach (COH) and Time Warner Cable (TWC) will report earnings before the opening bell, as well as oil companies Valero (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSXP) and ConocoPhillips (COP).
Google (GOOGL, Tech30), Amazon (AMZN, Tech30) and Visa (V) will report after the close.
US stock futures are holding steady but Thursday's direction will likely depend on how well those earnings are received.
2) Investors lovin' McDonald's News
Investors are bidding up shares in McDonald's (MCD) ahead of the open after CEO Don Thompson announced his retirement. This comes a week after McDonald's reported awful financial results.
3) Greece Markets Steady
The main stock market index in Greece stabilized, trading up by about 2% after plunging Wednesday.
The index has fallen 12% since the start of the year as investors have grown increasingly worried about Greece's financial health following the election of a new government that wants to renegotiate the terms of its international bailout.
European markets were all edging down in early trading. Asian markets mostly closed with losses.
4) Economic Announcements
The US government will report weekly jobless claims at 8:30am ET.
At 10:00am, new US data on pending home sales will be released from December.
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What is it? It checks the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.
It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
When? January 29th at 7:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.
When? January 29th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is lower than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
When? January 29th at all day long.
Trading Tip: If the actual number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the EUR to rise.
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