What is it? It checks the change in the number of employed people during the previous month.
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
When? January 14th at 7:30pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the AUD to rise.
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What is it? Governor Carney is due to testify on the Financial Stability Report before the Treasury Select Committee, in London.
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
When? January 14th at 9:15am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
When? January 14th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It checks the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.
Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends.
When? January 14th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? The European Court of Justice is due to announce a preliminary, non-binding ruling regarding the constitutionality of the ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions policy (OMT), in Luxembourg.
When? January 14th at 3:35am Eastern Time.
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US markets declined as investor confidence was hit as the oil sell off continued. Oil prices dropped below $45/barrel on a number of factors and energy shares were hit once again. Losses heightened at the end of the session as John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President, said that raising interest rates would be a close call due to signs of a stronger labor market coupled with weaker wages.
Asian markets were mixed today. The Nikkei lost 0.64% as the Yen strengthened as a safe haven asset; the Dollar dropped to a low of 117.7 during the Asian session.
European markets are higher today due to indications that the ECB will begin quantitative easing next week. If this step is made, further liquidity would enter the market which is a positive thing for stocks.
Oil continued to decline and reached a low of $44.2/barrel. Losses were seen after the Prince of Saudi, Alwaleed, stated that oil will never again reach $100/barrel. In addition, the United Arab Emirates oil minister, Suhail bin Mohammed al- Mazroui, spoke earlier today and supported OPECs decision to maintain the current rate of production. Traders should watch the weekly inventory report from the API which will be released at 9:30pm GMT.
Gold is climbing as a safe haven asset as oil prices hit sentiment and equity markets decline. The US stock market opened sharply higher today due to expectations that the ECB will add stimulus and this could push the metal back down. Traders should watch US data which will be released later in the session including the JOLTS Job Openings at 3:00pm GMT.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) Oil Prices Keep Sliding
US crude futures are down another 3% this morning, trading at roughly $44.50 per barrel. Oil prices fell by more than 5% on Monday.
The price of crude has more than halved over the past few months, piling pressure on the oil industry and many producer nations.
2) Stocks Seem Stuck
US stock futures are little changed, although there's a slight positive bias in the markets.
Over the previous trading session, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 97 points, while the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the Nasdaq slid 0.8%.
European markets are edging lower in early trading, though the moves are modest. Asian markets ended with mixed results.
3) Welcome News From China
New data from China shows the country's exports rose by 9.9% in December, compared to the previous year. That's better than economists were expecting.
The Shanghai Composite edged up 0.2%, after falling sharply for three consecutive sessions.
4) Earnings
Shares in Alcoa (AA) are expected to jump at the open after the aluminum producer's quarterly results beat expectations.
Home builder KB Home (KBH) will report earnings before the opening bell.
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What is it? It checks the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
When? January 13th at 4:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the GBP to rise.
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NFP data was released on Friday and showed that 252,000 people were hired during the past month. This was very positive and was much higher than the expected increase of 240,000. However, average hourly earnings data was also released and disappointed as it showed a decline of 0.2%. The data offset expectations that interest rates could be raised sooner than expected as wage inflation is another important aspect of the market.
US markets declined following the release. Falling oil prices also hit sentiment.
Asian markets were mixed across the region. The Nikkei remained closed for a public holiday known as ‘Adults Day’. The Hang Seng added 0.45% as two components soared on news of reorganization plans.
European markets are mixed today. Oil prices initially boosted markets as companies reported that they will have stronger earnings due to weaker fuel prices. Markets were also boosted by a report from CNBC which stated that quantitative easing could be based on contributions made by central banks. Gains were short lived, however, as oil extended its sell off.
Oil is trading at its lowest price since March 2009. Goldman Sachs cut their 2015 forecast to $47.15 as they believe the market needs to balance itself out. The Prince of Saudi, Alwaleed, is also reported to have said that oil will never reach $100/barrel if supply and demand remains at the current level. Trader should focus on this week’s supply data as it may dictate the direction of the market.
Gold gained on the back of wage data. As the data made an interest rate hike seems less likely and the stock market declined, the metal was boosted as it offers more lucrative returns. As the Dollar remains strong we could see limited gains, however, so traders should be careful with any long term ‘Call’ positions.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) Stocks Up, Oil Down
US stock futures are climbing higher, indicating markets could have a positive start to the week. European stock markets are all rising, with the DAX in Germany up by more than 1%.
The broadly positive indications from the stock market contrast with the falling price of oil. Crude futures in the US are trading around $47 per barrel, down 2%.
The price of crude has more than halved over the past few months, piling pressure on the oil industry and many producer nations.
2) Market Movers
Shares in companies owned by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-Shing soared Monday after he announced plans to reorganize his massive empire.
A big takeover is also attracting attention Monday.
3) Earnings Season
This week sees the start of earnings season, when a deluge of quarterly reports hit the market. A key company reporting earnings Monday is Alcoa (AA).
4) Golden Moments for Amazon and Netflix
The Golden Globe awards over the weekend were the latest affirmation of the growing role of players such as Amazon (AMZN, Tech30) and Netflix (NFLX, Tech30) in television.
Amazon's comedic television series "Transparent" picked up two Golden Globe awards, beating shows from HBO, Netflix and The CW Network.
Netflix star Kevin Spacey also earned an award for his acting in the show, "House of Cards."
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What is it? It checks the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.
Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners usually buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
When? January 12th Tentative.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CNY to rise.
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What is it? It checks the Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the reported month.
It's directly linked to currency demand - a rising surplus indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in the country.
When? January 12th at 6:50pm Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the JPY to rise.
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What is it? Lockhard is due to speak at the Rotary Club, in Atlanta. Audience questions expected.
Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
When? January 12th at 12:40am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the announcement will hint towards higher interest rates, you can expect the USD to rise.
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What is it? It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.
When? January 12th at 10:30am Eastern Time.
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What is it? It checks the change in the level of a composite index based on 19 labor market indicators.
This index is designed to estimate labor market activity and available spare capacity, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. Source first released in Oct 2014.
When? January 12th at 10:00am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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Here are 4 tips for today's trading. This will help you decide where you should invest and what to look for:
1) US Jobs
The December jobs report came out at 8:30am. ET showing the economy added 252,000 new positions. This is better than expected, capping off the best year for jobs growth since 1999.
Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expected the American economy created 236,000 jobs over the month.
The unemployment rate declined to 5.6% in December from 5.8% in November.
2) Investors Are Ready to React
US stock futures are jumping in reaction to the jobs report.
But European markets are mostly lower in afternoon trading.
Most Asian markets ended with small gains.
3) Economies Slowing
Germany and France, the Eurozone’s two biggest economies, reported a drop in industrial production in November. That follows an initial reading of Eurozone December inflation earlier this week that showed consumer prices fell.
In China, the latest inflation data is reportedly near a five-year low, rising by just 1.5% in December 2014 compared to the same time a year ago.
4) Stock Market Recap
After a rough start to 2015, stocks posted an impressive rebound on Wednesday and Thursday.
Over the past trading session, the Dow Jones industrial average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all surged by 1.8%.
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What is it? It checks the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.
Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners usually buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
When? January 9th Tentative.
Trading Tip: If the number is higher than the forecast, you can expect the CNY to rise.
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What is it? It checks the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.
When? January 9th at 8:30am Eastern Time.
Trading Tip: If the number is lower than the forecast, you can expect the USD to rise.
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